Topic: Financial Markets

Business Conditions Monthly February 2024

– April 19, 2024

“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle

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US Manufacturing is Doing Just Fine

– April 2, 2024

“Faced with the increased prosperity that has correlated with lowered trade barriers, making the case that trade liberalization has led to widespread harm is no easy task.” ~Colin Grabow

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Eating The Rich Won’t Feed the Beast

– April 2, 2024

“The hungry behemoth that is the US federal government is already eating the rich… Jeff Bezos’ great fortune would finance the government for… less than a week. ” ~Joakim Book

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Fixing A Big Mistake in Risk-Based Capital Rules

– March 27, 2024

“Both long Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by government agencies are in current regulation included as ‘High Quality Liquid Assets.’ But of course they both can and have created plenty of interest rate risk.” ~Alex J. Pollock

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Business Conditions Monthly January 2024

– March 21, 2024

“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle

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The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday

– March 12, 2024

“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell

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Business Conditions Monthly December 2023

– February 21, 2024

“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Seize the Means of Production in a Few Easy Steps

– February 12, 2024

“Slow-motion corporate raiding just doesn’t stir the blood like waving a flag and raising a fist at the barricade or building a guillotine outside Jeff Bezos’s house.” ~Art Carden

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Check Your Economic Hubris

– January 21, 2024

“No matter how glorious it was for Icarus to fly and how well he thought he could do it, reality has a way of punishing excessive hubris.” ~Joakim Book

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The Future of Bitcoin in Light of a Spot ETF

– January 20, 2024

“While the SEC’s long-overdue approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF deserves a bit of celebration, watch out for what’s next. The state apparatus will increasingly treat Bitcoin as a regulated financial product.” ~Emile Phaneuf III

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Business Conditions Monthly November 2023

– January 9, 2024

“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Who’s Winning the Race for Real-Time Payments?

– January 6, 2024

“The extent to which the Federal Reserve will take measures to hold back TCH-RTP’s growth was not yet clear (and maybe it still isn’t). Institutions may be hedging their bets or testing both systems.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky

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