” Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady when they meet on March 19-20. In light of the CPI data, that’s a defensible move.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell
READ MORE“It’s not that Argentina lacks dollars. Rather, it is that the Argentine government lacks the will to commit to its dollarization plan.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
READ MORE“Higher rates could be a sign of loose money, not tight, depending on how far from the policy change we’re looking and how fast the market adapts.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“The Fed should be looking ahead and adjusting monetary policy in light of its forecasts. Instead, its eyes are fixed on the rear-view mirror.” ~William J. Luther
READ MORE“At most, large deficits impelled the Fed to support the market for government debt by purchasing more debt than it should have. The central bank, not the fiscal authorities, is the residual determiner of aggregate demand.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“Team Transitory’s narrative just doesn’t cohere. Whether we’re trying to explain the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, or the inflation of the past two years, we need to rely on demand-side mechanisms.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“Microeconomic relative-price dynamics increasingly drive inflation measurements. That means the Fed should not be afraid to ease off the brakes.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
READ MORE“The Fed’s self-conception as an apolitical technocracy blinds it to the degree to which it has weighed in on fundamental political issues, which instead ought to be deliberated in Congress.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“The persistent inflation of the past three years saw spikes in tickets and hotel rooms, but also in the seemingly more affordable alternative: hosting or attending Super Bowl parties at home.” ~Peter C. Earle
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