Daily economy news from the American Institute for Economic Research: data, stories, research, and articles touching on economics, politics, culture, education, policy, opinion, technology, markets, healthcare, regulation, trends, and much more.

AIER’s Editorial Policy.

Inflationary Growth is Fake News

“Economic growth means more output. Comparatively less money chases comparatively more goods. All else equal, prices across the economy should fall.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Thomas Sowell, Social Justice Fallacies 

“We might agree that ‘equal chances for all’ would be desirable. But that in no way guarantees that we have either the knowledge or the power required to make that goal attainable.” ~Gary M. Galles

Business Conditions Monthly August 2023

“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle

You’re No Einstein, Einstein  

“While he does seem to have intuited that socialism increased the dangers of authoritarian government, he doesn’t seem to have fully grasped that what he sought were two goals in fundamental tension.” ~James A. Hanley

Why is Baby Formula Kept Under Lock and Key?

“Patent restrictions, a deliberate oligopoly, protectionist tariffs, and the highest inflation in four decades have resulted in an extremely expensive product at the end of a frangible production process and supply chain.” ~Peter C. Earle

Inflation was Worse than We Thought

“Although Fed officials were late to tighten monetary policy, their efforts over the last year appear to have worked. The risk today is that monetary policy is too tight—and will remain so for too long.” ~William J. Luther

How Crazy Do You Have to Be to Support Dollarization?

“The whole reason why it is an advantage for a developing country to tie to a major country is that historically speaking the internal policies of developing countries have been very bad. US policy has been bad, but their policies have been far worse.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky

Wishful (Protectionist) Thinking 

“Specialization and productivity increase when the market’s size extends across national borders. But tariffs reduce the extent of the market and thereby reduce specialization.” ~Paul Mueller

Weighing Whether the Standard Scale Makes Sense

“Largely thoughtless adoption of a grading scale inherited from primary school can increase the emphasis on rote instead of reason at the university level.” ~Gary M. Galles

What Should the Federal Reserve Do Now?

“Inflation is running above 2 percent by any measure, and a current temporarily higher rate on short-term securities can reassure markets that the Federal Reserve is aiming at a lower inflation rate.” ~Gerald P. Dwyer

Another Rate Hike? Let’s Not

“Interest rate and liquidity data point to the same conclusion: monetary policy is sufficiently tight. Further tightening could cause a painful economic contraction.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Inflationary Growth is Fake News

“Economic growth means more output. Comparatively less money chases comparatively more goods. All else equal, prices across the economy should fall.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Thomas Sowell, Social Justice Fallacies 

“We might agree that ‘equal chances for all’ would be desirable. But that in no way guarantees that we have either the knowledge or the power required to make that goal attainable.” ~Gary M. Galles

Business Conditions Monthly August 2023

“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle

You’re No Einstein, Einstein  

“While he does seem to have intuited that socialism increased the dangers of authoritarian government, he doesn’t seem to have fully grasped that what he sought were two goals in fundamental tension.” ~James A. Hanley

Why is Baby Formula Kept Under Lock and Key?

“Patent restrictions, a deliberate oligopoly, protectionist tariffs, and the highest inflation in four decades have resulted in an extremely expensive product at the end of a frangible production process and supply chain.” ~Peter C. Earle

Inflation was Worse than We Thought

“Although Fed officials were late to tighten monetary policy, their efforts over the last year appear to have worked. The risk today is that monetary policy is too tight—and will remain so for too long.” ~William J. Luther

How Crazy Do You Have to Be to Support Dollarization?

“The whole reason why it is an advantage for a developing country to tie to a major country is that historically speaking the internal policies of developing countries have been very bad. US policy has been bad, but their policies have been far worse.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky

Wishful (Protectionist) Thinking 

“Specialization and productivity increase when the market’s size extends across national borders. But tariffs reduce the extent of the market and thereby reduce specialization.” ~Paul Mueller

Weighing Whether the Standard Scale Makes Sense

“Largely thoughtless adoption of a grading scale inherited from primary school can increase the emphasis on rote instead of reason at the university level.” ~Gary M. Galles

What Should the Federal Reserve Do Now?

“Inflation is running above 2 percent by any measure, and a current temporarily higher rate on short-term securities can reassure markets that the Federal Reserve is aiming at a lower inflation rate.” ~Gerald P. Dwyer

Another Rate Hike? Let’s Not

“Interest rate and liquidity data point to the same conclusion: monetary policy is sufficiently tight. Further tightening could cause a painful economic contraction.” ~Alexander W. Salter