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Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Sharply Lower in Early May

– May 13, 2022

“Consumer sentiment sank in early May and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Have Started to Trend Higher but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level

– May 12, 2022

“Weekly initial claims have trended slightly higher recently but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Dips Back Below Neutral

– May 12, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell eight points to a below-neutral 46 in April. Rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and new lockdowns in China are risks to the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Food Prices Send AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in April

– May 11, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private Payrolls Add 406,000 Jobs in April

– May 6, 2022

“Payroll gains remained strong in April, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and renewed lockdowns in China are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Hit an Eleven-Week High but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level

– May 5, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since February but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Rose in April, but Remain Low

– May 5, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales rose in April but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies rose in March, but component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Services-Sector Survey Suggests Continued Price Pressures and Perhaps Some Weakening in Demand

– May 5, 2022

“Services-sector expansion continued in April, but labor and materials shortages are sustaining price pressures. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and Fed tightening are threats to the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Hit New Highs in March

– May 3, 2022

“Private-sector job openings and quits rose to new record highs in March. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a new Fed tightening cycle, and global economic disruptions are threatening the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Recent Trends Continue in April Manufacturing-Sector Survey

– May 2, 2022

“Recent trends in the manufacturing sector continued in April as demand remained robust but price pressures, labor and materials shortages, and logistical issues continue to be challenges. Recent events in Ukraine and China are compounding the difficulties.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Sentiment Ticked Up in April, but the Level Remains Low

– April 29, 2022

“Consumer sentiment ended higher in April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Elevated risks are sustaining a high level of uncertainty for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weak Headline Masks Underlying Resilience in First Quarter GDP

– April 28, 2022

“Weak headline GDP growth masks the resilience of private domestic demand. However, continued price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections are boosting risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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