Topic: Business Conditions

Business Conditions Monthly December 2023

– February 21, 2024

“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly November 2023

– January 9, 2024

“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Largest Decline in 2023

– December 13, 2023

“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly October 2023

– December 4, 2023

“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Declines Most Since December 2022

– November 14, 2023

“The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. But while the most recent CPI and EPI readings relay a positive state of affairs in the resumption of disinflation, challenges and uncertainties persist.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly September 2023

– November 8, 2023

“While we refrain from providing a specific magnitude for our recession forecast and acknowledge the possibility of inaccuracies or outright error, we maintain our contention that the US will enter an economic recession by September 2024.” ~Peter C. Earle

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.29 Percent in September 2023

– October 12, 2023

“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly August 2023

– October 2, 2023

“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Biggest Monthly Jump since January

– September 13, 2023

“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly July 2023

– September 8, 2023

“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.34 percent in July 2023

– August 10, 2023

“Ninety percent of the increase in the headline index was accounted for by increases in shelter costs, with additional contributions from motor vehicle insurance and food at home prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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Business Conditions Monthly June 2023

– August 2, 2023

“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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