Real Disposable Income and Real Consumer Spending Fell in May
“Personal income rose in May, but real disposable income and real consumer spending fell. The outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Average Weekly Initial Claims Rose for a Fourth Consecutive Week
“Weekly initial claims fell, but the four-week average continues on a modest upward trend. Sustained elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Inflation Fears Continue to Drag Consumer Expectations Lower
“Consumer expectations sank again in June, as fears of high inflation grow. Elevated price pressures, fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Durable-goods Orders Remained Strong in May
“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in May and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes
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New Single-Family Home Sales Bounce Higher in May
“New-home sales ticked up in May as prices and mortgage rates continue to surge. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Plunged to a Record Low in June
“Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in June and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Average Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Drift Higher
“Weekly initial claims fell but the four-week average continues on a modest upward trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Existing Home Sales Fell to the Lowest Level Since June 2020
“Existing-home sales fell again in May with record-high prices and surging mortgage rates continuing to reduce affordability and push buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Manufacturing Output Falls for the Second Time in Five Months
“Industrial output rose in May, but manufacturing output fell. Details were mixed and may point to spreading softening in the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Home Construction Falls Again in May
“Housing starts and permits fell in May. Surging mortgage rates, record home prices, and falling consumer attitudes are major headwinds for demand. The outlook for housing is deteriorating rapidly.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Four-Week Average of Weekly Initial Claims Hits the Highest Level Since March
“Weekly initial claims fell but the four-week average continues on a modest upward trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Returns to Neutral in May
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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