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“The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. But while the most recent CPI and EPI readings relay a positive state of affairs in the resumption of disinflation, challenges and uncertainties persist.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“While we refrain from providing a specific magnitude for our recession forecast and acknowledge the possibility of inaccuracies or outright error, we maintain our contention that the US will enter an economic recession by September 2024.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“Ninety percent of the increase in the headline index was accounted for by increases in shelter costs, with additional contributions from motor vehicle insurance and food at home prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s April Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflect the disparate, and to some extent offsetting economic signals emergent within the US economy today.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.60 percent in April 2023 following being essentially unchanged in March and rising 1.6 percent in January and February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“The current US economic environment could be categorized as stagflation lite, demonstrating as it does relatively resilient employment amid increasingly entrenched inflation and weakening growth.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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