AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to 29, Signals Broadening Weakness
The AIER Leading Indicators Index is well below neutral, signaling broadening weakness in the economy and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.
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Big Upside Surprise for the July Jobs Report
“Payrolls posted a strong gain in July, though other labor market indicators are still questionable. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Increase for the Fourth Time in the Last Five Weeks
“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, aggressive Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Services-Sector Activity Picks Up in July
“Services-sector expansion continued in July. Ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures are still concerns, as are emerging signs of softening demand and a weakening economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Unit Auto Sales Rose for a Second Consecutive Month but Remain Weak
“Light-vehicle sales rose again in July but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Fall for a Third Consecutive Month
“Private-sector job openings and quits fell for a third consecutive month in June, adding to the evidence of a weakening economy. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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July Manufacturing-Sector Survey Points to Slowing
“The latest manufacturing survey suggests continued expansion but easing price pressures and uncertainty about the future. Persistently elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed policy tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Remained Near Record Lows in Late July
“Consumer sentiment ticked up in July but remains near record lows and consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Rising Prices Boost Durable-goods Orders in June
“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in June, but much of it is from price increases. Rising prices, Fed policy tightening, and global turmoil are sustaining elevated risks.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Trend Higher
“Weekly initial claims fell, but the trend remains upward. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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U.S. Posts Second Consecutive Drop in Real GDP
“Real GDP fell for a second consecutive quarter, but real private domestic demand has performed better, and core PCE price increases decelerated. Fed tightening, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Continued to Weaken in July
“Consumer expectations sank again in July, as fears of high inflation persist. Elevated price pressures, the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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