Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Trend Higher

– December 1, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, but the rising trend in the four-week average and increasing job cut announcements are a warning. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Remain High Despite Falling in October

– November 30, 2022

“Private-sector job openings fell in October but remain high, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Third Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Pockets of Weakness Persist

– November 30, 2022

“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand remained weak. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Expectations Remained at Recessionary Levels in November

– November 29, 2022

“Consumer confidence fell again in November with consumer expectations at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Sentiment Remained Weak in November

– November 23, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell in November and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked down, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Hit a Fourteen-Week High

– November 23, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since August, and job cut announcements rose in October. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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New Home Sales Rose in October, But the Outlook Remains Cautious

– November 23, 2022

“New-home sales rose in October, but so did prices and inventory. High prices, bloated inventory, and elevated mortgage rates suggest a poor outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Nominal Durable-Goods Orders Posted a Strong, Broad-based Gain in October

– November 23, 2022

“Durable-goods orders rose in October though growth in real durable-goods orders remains modest.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Housing Collapse Continues

– November 18, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell again in October as reduced affordability pushes buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing is unfavorable.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Housing Market Outlook Darkens as Mortgage Rates Rise

– November 17, 2022

“Single-family housing starts and permits fell again in October as demand continued to weaken. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Stable

– November 17, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, and the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Motor Vehicle Production Boosts Manufacturing Output in October

– November 16, 2022

“Industrial-sector output fell in October though motor vehicle production rose. Elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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