Core Capital-Goods Orders Hold at a Record High Level

– January 27, 2022

“New orders for core capital goods remained strong in December. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Inventory Accumulation Boosts Real GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter

– January 27, 2022

“Inventory accumulation boosted headline GDP growth while private domestic demand posted a modest gain. With continued pressure on prices, the Fed is moving to a tightening cycle, boosting the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Employment

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell in the Latest Week

– January 27, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell back from a three-month high in the prior week and remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

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New Single-Family Home Sales Jump but Prices Sink

– January 26, 2022

“New-home sales rose in December, but prices plunged, and months’ supply remains relatively high. Rising prices, higher mortgage rates, and continued inventory build may continue to weigh on price increases.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Confidence Softened in January

– January 25, 2022

“Consumer expectations weakened in January, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Existing Home Sales Fell in December and Supply Remains Extremely Tight

– January 20, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell sharply in December, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences and rising mortgage rates are likely to continue to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise for a Third Consecutive Week

– January 20, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high, possibly impacted by the recent surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Housing Permits Were Hot in December but Rising Mortgage Rates May Cool Them Off

– January 19, 2022

“Housing activity was solid in December. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Manufacturing Output Fell Slightly in December

– January 14, 2022

“Industrial output fell in December, but many industries are producing more now than prior to the pandemic. Still, it may take some time for materials shortages and logistical problems to be fully resolved.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Retail Spending Fell Sharply in December

– January 14, 2022

“Retail sales fell in December but remain at a high level, sustaining pressure on prices. However, there may be early signs of easing pressures as sales growth moderates and inventories rise.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise to the Highest Level Since November

– January 13, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high, possibly impacted by the current surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Drop in Gas Holds AIER’s Everyday Price Index Down in December

– January 12, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index was unchanged in December as falling motor fuels prices offset other gains. Despite waves of new Covid cases, progress boosting output is being made and that should eventually ease some price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes

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