Business Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business Conditions

Initial Claims Remain Range Bound

– March 4, 2021

“Initial claims fell in the latest week, but overall remain range bound, suggesting the labor market remains soft.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Light-Vehicle Sales Decreased in February

– March 3, 2021

“Light-vehicle sales fell in February, falling below the recent range. The decline was led by a sharp drop in domestic car sales.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

More Positive News for the Manufacturing Sector

– March 1, 2021

“The manufacturing-sector recovery continues, though output remains slightly below pre-pandemic levels.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Lower Income Households Pull Down Consumer Sentiment in February

– February 26, 2021

“Consumer sentiment fell in February, driven by a weaker economic outlook, especially among lower-income consumers.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Government Transfer Payments Distort Personal Income in January

– February 26, 2021

“Personal income jumped in January as government payments surged but excluding government distortions, incomes fell.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Core Capital-Goods Orders Hit Another Record High in January

– February 25, 2021

“Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods rose in January, with core capital goods hitting another record high. The strong showing is a positive sign for the overall outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Initial Claims Fall to the Lowest Level Since November

– February 25, 2021

“Initial claims fell to the lowest level since November, but overall, data suggest the labor market remains fragile.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Housing Surge Continues as New Single-Family Home Sales Rise Again in January

– February 24, 2021

“The single-family housing market remains a bright spot for the economy, supported by low interest rates and strong demand, but headwinds may be forming.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Consumers Remained Cautiously Optimistic in February

– February 23, 2021

“Consumer attitudes improved slightly in February, led by improving current conditions, but overall measures of consumer confidence remain at historically moderate levels.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Housing Permits Surge in January

– February 18, 2021

“The housing market continues to be a bright spot for the economy, supported by low mortgage rates and increased demand.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Initial Claims Hold Above 800,000 for Sixth Consecutive Week

– February 18, 2021

“Initial claims rose again, holding above 800,000 for the sixth consecutive week. Recent data suggest the labor market remains fragile.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Manufacturing Recovery Continued in January

– February 17, 2021

“Manufacturing output continued to recover in January and is a positive sign for the outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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