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“The key question, moving forward, is whether the Federal Reserve’s shift to accommodation will be sufficient to counteract the emerging signs of economic contraction.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“While the Federal Reserve’s progress in controlling inflation may provide the latitude needed to begin rate cuts aimed at supporting employment…the United States has either entered, or is on the verge of entering, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Ongoing data noise driven by pandemic policies, unstable prices, Fed rate hikes, consumer fatigue, and stubborn disinflation early in the year, in combination, broadly suggest an economy experiencing mixed signals.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The road ahead remains uncertain, though, with potential outcomes ranging from a slow, steady economic rebalancing to sluggishness or even a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“We remain cautious, as economic statistics have been both volatile and reflective of highly unusual underlying conditions since pandemic policies were lifted three years ago.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
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