Housing Activity Slowed in September but Remains Brisk
“Housing activity continues to recede from the late 2020 surge but remains brisk. Rising home prices and mortgage rates will work to ease demand while secular shifts in housing preferences due to new remote work options may provide some support.” – Robert Hughes
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Lingering Effects from Covid and Hurricane Ida Hurt Industrial Output in September
“Industrial output fell in September as the lingering effects of Covid and Hurricane Ida restrain production. It may take some time for the effects to dissipate.” – Robert Hughes
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Groceries Feed Gains in the Everyday Price Index in September
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its tenth consecutive increase in September led by groceries. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic including shortages, logistical and supply chain issues, and labor problems. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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Job Openings Fell in August but Remain Extremely High
“Job openings fell back slightly from a record high but quits remain elevated as workers take advantage of favorable labor conditions. Overall, the outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth remain significant.” – Robert Hughes
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All Three AIER Business Cycle Indicators Weaken in October
“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted a sixth consecutive drop in September but remains slightly above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting continued economic expansion. However, the string of declines since the March high also suggest that sources of growth may narrow, and the pace of growth could slow as well.” – Robert Hughes
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Slower But Broad-Based Gains for Private Sector Payrolls in September
“Payrolls posted another disappointing gain in September though breadth of gains in the private sector was favorable. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth remain significant.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Ease Back After Three Consecutive increases
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits eased back after three consecutive increases. Federal continuing claims fell again following a plunge in the prior week as two pandemic programs saw additional declines.” – Robert Hughes
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Continued Expansion for the Services-Sector in September
“The services sector expanded for the 16th consecutive month in September, but shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices.” – Robert Hughes
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Unit Auto Sales Fell for a Fifth Consecutive Month as Shortages Continue
“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fifth consecutive month in September. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes
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Demand Remains Strong as Production Problems Persist for the Manufacturing Sector
“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in September. However, labor difficulties, materials shortages, and logistical issues continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Improved in September but Remains Low
“Consumer sentiment remained weak in September as consumers react to Covid and high prices. The survey results suggest continued risks to the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose for the Third Consecutive Week
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose for a third consecutive week, likely a result of the recent surge in new Covid cases. Federal continuing claims plunged as two pandemic programs saw steep declines.” – Robert Hughes
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