Business Conditions

Each month, one of our Research Reports articles is devoted to current business-cycle conditions. Each of these monthly discussions includes a full set of charts of AIER’s primary leading, coincident and lagging statistical indicators. We also produce two charts that aggregate the movements of the 12 leading indicators. We often publish these two charts with the monthly report, however, space does not always permit them to be included.

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

Energy Price Surge Continues to Drive Everyday Prices Higher

– April 13, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index jumped 1.2 percent in March as energy prices surged for a third consecutive month.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Hits Highest Level Since 2018

– April 12, 2021

“The AIER Leading Indicators index rose to 92 in March, the highest since 2018, as declining government restrictions boost current economic activity and the outlook for future growth.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Consumer Credit Jumped in February

– April 9, 2021

“Consumer credit jumped in February as vaccine distribution and easing government restrictions boost economic activity.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Initial Claims Rise Again but the Outlook for Jobs Remains Positive

– April 8, 2021

“Initial claims ticked up for the second consecutive week, but the outlook continues to improve as government restrictions on consumers and businesses are eased.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Job Openings Rates Hit Record Highs

– April 6, 2021

“The job openings rate hit a record in February, adding to the run of improved labor market data. Continued reductions of lockdown rules are boosting the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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Auto Sales Stage Partial Rebound Following A Two-Month Plunge
Business Conditions

Light-Vehicle Sales Jumped in March

– April 2, 2021

“Light-vehicle sales surged in March, moving to the top of the recent range. The gain was broadbased across most segments.” – Robert Hughes

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Employment
Business Conditions

Broad Strength in the Labor Market in March

– April 2, 2021

“Payrolls posted a strong gain in March, showing that economic recovery will likely gain momentum as government restrictions on consumers and businesses are lifted.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Manufacturing Survey Suggests Strong Momentum

– April 1, 2021

“The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers suggests broadening expansion for the sector in March.” – Robert Hughes

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coffeeworkers
Business Conditions

Initial Claims Rise but the Outlook for Jobs is Improving

– April 1, 2021

“Initial claims ticked up from the prior week’s pandemic low, but the outlook continues to improve as government restrictions on consumers and businesses are eased.” – Robert Hughes

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consumer sentiment
Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Jumps as Outlook Continues to Improve

– March 30, 2021

“Consumer attitudes improved significantly in March, but consumer confidence remains at historically moderate levels, and concerns about consumer-price increases are rising.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Household Net Worth Hits A Record While Debt Service Remains Low

– March 29, 2021

“Despite restrictive government policies and recession, aggregate household net worth rose to a new record, but financial health varies widely across cohorts.” – Robert Hughes

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Business Conditions

Vaccinations and Stimulus Boost Consumer Sentiment As Impatience Also Rises

– March 26, 2021

“Consumer sentiment rose in March, driven by vaccine distribution and stimulus benefits while impatience with lockdowns has also risen. Recent data suggest an improving outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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