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“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“Ninety percent of the increase in the headline index was accounted for by increases in shelter costs, with additional contributions from motor vehicle insurance and food at home prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s April Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflect the disparate, and to some extent offsetting economic signals emergent within the US economy today.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.60 percent in April 2023 following being essentially unchanged in March and rising 1.6 percent in January and February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“The current US economic environment could be categorized as stagflation lite, demonstrating as it does relatively resilient employment amid increasingly entrenched inflation and weakening growth.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“No indicators are conclusive, and all are subject to change or revision. But in the the aggregate, current data suggests that US economic fundamentals are deteriorating. The current baseline estimate is for an economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.03 percent in March 2023, following increases of 0.93 percent in January and 0.67 percent in February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“The AIER Leading Indicator remained essentially neutral in February 2023, maintaining the level of 58 from the previous month. Our Roughly Coincident Indicator rose from 50 to 92 in February 2023, with the Lagging Indicator falling from 50 to 33.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“As was the case in January 2023, AIER’s Everyday Price Index shows a larger month-over-month increase in household costs than either the headline or core Consumer Price Index readings indicate.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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