Services-Sector Activity Accelerated in November

– December 5, 2022

“Services-sector survey suggests expansion continued in November, and respondents were generally optimistic. However, the outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Fell in November

– December 5, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales fell in November following a rise in inventory and drop in prices in October.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Payroll Gains Beat Expectations, but the Pace Is Slowing

– December 2, 2022

“Payrolls gains beat expectations in November, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Manufacturing-Sector Contracts in November

– December 1, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broadening weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Trend Higher

– December 1, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, but the rising trend in the four-week average and increasing job cut announcements are a warning. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Remain High Despite Falling in October

– November 30, 2022

“Private-sector job openings fell in October but remain high, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Third Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Pockets of Weakness Persist

– November 30, 2022

“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand remained weak. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Expectations Remained at Recessionary Levels in November

– November 29, 2022

“Consumer confidence fell again in November with consumer expectations at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Sentiment Remained Weak in November

– November 23, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell in November and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked down, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Hit a Fourteen-Week High

– November 23, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since August, and job cut announcements rose in October. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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New Home Sales Rose in October, But the Outlook Remains Cautious

– November 23, 2022

“New-home sales rose in October, but so did prices and inventory. High prices, bloated inventory, and elevated mortgage rates suggest a poor outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Nominal Durable-Goods Orders Posted a Strong, Broad-based Gain in October

– November 23, 2022

“Durable-goods orders rose in October though growth in real durable-goods orders remains modest.” ~ Robert Hughes

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