What the Hell is Inflation Anyway?
“Words mean different things to different people, and their meanings change over time. How we define inflation is a matter of choice, but we must also recognize that choice reflects more fundamental beliefs about how the economy functions.” ~ Michael J. Douma
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Why Deficits Matter
“If we want to argue deficits matter more conventionally, we’ll have to do some more theoretical heavy lifting. The usual aggregate demand stories we tell don’t cut it.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Inflation in Oil Prices Will Soon Slow to Zero
“One thing we can confidently project about 2022 is that year-to-year measures of ‘inflation’ in prices of used cars and energy will be near zero by the third quarter, if not below zero. That is nearly a sure thing, baked-in-the cake.” ~ Alan Reynolds
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Neutral for a Third Consecutive Month
“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady again in December, coming in at a neutral 50 for a third month. The result suggests continued economic expansion but with elevated risks. Shortages of labor and materials continue to sustain upward pressure on prices but there may be some early signs of easing for some of those issues.” ~ Robert Hughes
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The Fed’s Higher Fed Funds Rate Projections Mean What?
“It is rarely prudent to assume that a central bank’s central planners can predict the future better than you can, or that they really know what they are doing and why.” ~ Alan Reynolds
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Fed Officials Think Inflation Should Remain High Through 2024
“It seems the Fed is not committed to hitting its average inflation target. Inflation will be transitory in the sense that the rate will eventually return to 2 percent. But the price level will likely remain elevated.” ~ William J. Luther
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Why the Casual Attitude toward Inflation?
“The threat of inflation has been apparent for some time now, but those who have the power to do something about it seem to have the attitude that it will go away on its own.” ~ Randall G. Holcombe
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Supply and Demand Is Not Just for Microeconomics
“The usefulness of supply and demand is most obvious in the case of microeconomics, which focuses on households and firms. But it’s just as handy for macroeconomics in studying economy-wide phenomena like growth and business cycles.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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How Much Can the Supply Chain Explain the Rise of Inflation?
“Once we move from the realm of small price level movements to a more permanent and higher inflation rate scenario, it is more likely that the source of the rise in the price level is on the monetary side—even if the government doesn’t want to admit it.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Will the Fed Do Enough to Bring Down Inflation?
“The Fed must act boldly and swiftly to course correct. Otherwise, inflation expectations could become unanchored––leaving the Fed to choose between restoring its credibility by engineering a recession or tolerating high inflation in perpetuity.” ~ William J. Luther
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Not Hyperinflation, but Plenty Bad Enough
“We see the seeds of this already in the intellectually bankrupt Modern Monetary Theory. MMT boils down to a simple policy prescription: politicians should feel free to print as much money as they want. That’s a recipe for hyperinflation.” ~ Antony Davies
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Powell Pivots as Inflation Picks Up
“Powell recommended ditching the term transitory. ‘We tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,’ he told the Senate Committee. ‘I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.’” ~ William J. Luther
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