Topic: Economic Trends

Business Conditions Monthly August 2023

– October 2, 2023

“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle


Why is Baby Formula Kept Under Lock and Key?

– September 30, 2023

“Patent restrictions, a deliberate oligopoly, protectionist tariffs, and the highest inflation in four decades have resulted in an extremely expensive product at the end of a frangible production process and supply chain.” ~Peter C. Earle


Get Ready to Kiss Your Credit Card Rewards Goodbye

– September 20, 2023

“The benign-sounding Credit Card Competition Act is a double whammy. It’s not just a threat to my credit card rewards; It’s a violation of my libertarian principles.” ~Jon Miltimore


AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Biggest Monthly Jump since January

– September 13, 2023

“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle


Business Conditions Monthly July 2023

– September 8, 2023

“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle


Recent Trends and Persistent Disparities in Teenage Labor Force Participation

– September 6, 2023

“Almost every imaginable economic indicator was sharply affected by the pandemic. But in just the past year, both college enrollment and teenage labor force participation show signs of what may be to come.” ~ Edward Lopez and Kevin Lavery


State Development Incentives: Taxes, Investment, and Tullock Auctions

– September 5, 2023

“State ‘incentive’ packages do more than pay companies the difference in costs. Politicians have every reason to pay up to, and beyond, the entire economic benefit to the state, because their calculus counts costs as benefits.” ~ Michael Munger


The One-Percent Principle

– September 4, 2023

“Is humanity worse off because we listen to Song A instead of Song B, read this great book instead of that one? Have we tragically lost some grand human experience? Probably not.” ~ Joakim Book


Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?

– September 2, 2023

“Interest rates on mortgages were 2.66 percent just two and a half years ago. Why the sudden increase in rates? The Federal Reserve increased the money supply and generated the worst inflation in many years.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer


Inflation is Back on Target

– August 31, 2023

“People have renegotiated their wages and purchase orders with those new expectations in mind. To course correct at this late stage would amount to a very painful contraction.” ~ William J. Luther


In Defense of Cash Grabs

– August 30, 2023

“It doesn’t have to make sense to the outside observer, because ‘the system’ is not something a single mind designed but the unintended consequence of innumerable individual choices in response to (sometimes badly distorted) incentives.” ~ Art Carden


The Opportunity Costs of FTC Merger Meddling

– August 20, 2023

“Success is never guaranteed in a market economy, and business failure is not uncommon for industry leaders. Blockbuster and Kodak had near monopolistic status in their respective sectors but that couldn’t save them from tech innovations that took them down.” ~ Kimberlee Josephson