Prices Continue to Rise, Exceeding Fed Projections
“The Fed seems resolved to see inflation climb further. I expect FOMC members will revise up their projections of inflation again in June. They should revise their course of action, to bring inflation down as planned, instead.” ~ William J. Luther
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How High Will Inflation Be in 2021?
“Inflation will be noticeably higher in 2021 than it has been in some time. An important question is whether it will be followed by the widely predicted lower inflation or by higher inflation in subsequent years.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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Labor Force Participation Over the Covid-19 Recession
“Now that the economy is recovering, demand for labor has outpaced the supply—too many workers are unwilling to work under post-pandemic conditions, though this will likely be alleviated as relief and unemployment benefits expire.” ~ Robert F. Mulligan
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What Happened to All Those Jobs?
“We have far fewer jobs than we expected to have and, at the current tepid recovery, a decade’s journey to return to the health we had just prior to Covid-19. This is, of course, bad enough. Sober reflection, though, should lead quickly to the conclusion that the ruling class in Washington will manage to do even more to harm the economy in the meantime. It’s what they do, after all.” ~ Antony Davies & James R. Harrigan
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Is the US Economy a Virtual Reality?
“It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation. But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.” ~ Jeffrey Tucker
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The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money
“The Everything Bubble is a grand illusion, money is growing more plentiful, credit more available. Asset prices are not really rising; it is the value of money which is being systematically undermined. I wonder whether the motto for this pandemic will be carpe diem, quam minimum credula pecunia – seize the day, place no trust in money?” ~ Colin Lloyd
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The Entrenchment of Lockdown Denialism
“We cannot speak honestly about the astronomical costs of lockdowns until our mainstream media outlets at least begin to speak the word. They need to acknowledge the existence of the most devastating policy decision in many lifetimes, a use of government power we never imagined possible and one with catastrophic effects.” ~ Jeffrey Tucker
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Are the Conditions Right for Another Commodity Super-Cycle?
“With unemployment rates still elevated and much of the global economy in some form of lockdown, it is hard to imagine the conditions for an economic boom, especially one that will see wage increases, but the size and scale of the global monetary and fiscal response to the pandemic is unprecedented. It creates the conditions for a continued appreciation of a wide range of essential commodity prices as the pandemic ends and demand rebounds.” ~ Colin Lloyd
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Global Productivity Growth Post-Covid – Down But By No Means Out
“The current pandemic has yet to run its course, and the social and economic impact will take much longer to work its way through. Productivity growth, in the medium term, is liable to disappoint, but deferred creative disruption – a deferral which artificially low interest rates have allowed to persist since 2008, if not earlier – could set the stage for an era of dramatic productivity growth in the decades ahead.” ~ Colin Lloyd
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Americans Are Fleeing Lockdowns, When They Can Afford It
“The point is even clearer when you consider the states gaining and losing residents. Illinois, New York, and New Jersey – all with extreme stringencies – are losing residents faster than any other states. Northeastern states make up four out of the seven states, with California now fourth on the list. They are moving to Idaho, Arizona, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.” ~ Jeffrey Tucker
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Business Confidence, Big and Small, 2004-present
“I have looked at other groupings of business; e.g., surveys of people in finance, and surveys of people in production. The other groupings don’t show meaningful differences. But, between small business versus big business, there are real differences.” ~ Clifford F. Thies
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AIER Hosts Top Epidemiologists, Authors of the Great Barrington Declaration
The crisis of the policy response to Covid-19 drew AIER’s close attention from late January 2020 and following. The hosting of this crucial meeting was in the interest of backing the best science, promoting essential human rights, and reviving a focus on the common good.
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