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“Inflation in the United States will end 2024 above the Fed’s target range.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Housing costs continue to drive inflation higher. Some economists had forecast that substantial rent increases would have eased by now, but the numbers suggest that the housing inflation story isn’t over yet.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“In June, US inflation slowed to its lowest rate since 2021 primarily due to a significant deceleration in housing costs. June data bolsters the likelihood of rate cuts, potentially beginning in September.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The recent data, combined with the deceleration in core CPI in April, suggests the resumption of disinflation. But policymakers have indicated a need for several months of reduced price pressures before considering interest rate cuts.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“April’s core CPI data represents the lowest of 2024 and may signal the resumption of disinflation, particularly where shelter costs are concerned. Despite some favorable signs, though, there remains a persistent inflationary pressure in certain categories.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“It is increasingly clear that the choice to stop rate hikes at the 5.25 to 5.50 policy rate range was at best premature and may ultimately prove insufficient.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle
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“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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