Topic: Financial Markets

The Long Cycles in Markets and Political Order

– November 30, 2021

“I found Dalio’s thesis much more persuasive than I had anticipated: some historical patterns are real, wave-like, and operate over long horizons. With skill, data, and humility, we can uncover the likely prospects for our own times.” ~ Joakim Book

Crisis, Financial Markets, Government, International

The Chinese Financial Sector: On the Brink of Death

– November 30, 2021

“The Chinese banking and real estate sectors are on the brink of death. The government will do everything possible to reorganize the former and to save the latter, but it is very possible that it will be incapable of succeeding.” ~ Daniel Fernández

Crisis, Financial Markets, International

Will Evergrande Go Bankrupt?

– November 23, 2021

“The chances of Evergrande’s survival without public aid or without the massive injection of cash from some unsuspecting investor are therefore nil.” ~ Daniel Fernández

Cryptocurrency, Financial Markets, Regulation

There’s More than One Way to Make Stablecoins Safe

– November 19, 2021

“The PWG’s worries for the safety of stablecoin users are most applicable to one set of stablecoins: the set including USD Coin and Tether. A ‘banks-only’ model may be an improvement for some stablecoins, but it certainly isn’t the only way to ensure stablecoins are safe.” ~ J.P. Koning

Art and Culture, Financial Markets, Government, Inflation

The Horrors Of A Noninflationary Thanksgiving

– November 18, 2021

“Thanksgiving is arriving against a backdrop of worry and complaints, as CPI inflation is up 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. Monetary policy alchemists are forcing Americans to reconsider long-held traditions this year.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Authoritarianism, Economic Education, Financial Markets, International

The Case of Evergrande: Is There a Housing Bubble in China?

– November 16, 2021

“The Chinese housing bubble is enormous; various economic indicators leave no room for doubt. Evergrande’s problem is not an isolated issue but a systemic problem with the Chinese economy.” ~ Daniel Fernández

Books, Financial Markets, Free Markets, Technology

The Stories from a Decentralized Short Squeeze

– November 15, 2021

“Millions were made, billions lost, revenge realized and dreams shattered. The GameStop saga is both disturbing for what it reveals about a society’s divides and the market structure that made it possible.” ~ Joakim Book

Financial Markets, Fiscal Policy, Government

A New Era of Stagflation?

– November 4, 2021

“The creditors of the United States will not accept negative returns on an ever-expanding mountain of US debt indefinitely. At some point, perhaps not long from now, the US will face sharply higher interest rates and the type of budgetary constraints that were typical of profligate Third World borrowers.” ~ David P. Goldman

Cryptocurrency, Financial Markets, Government

Was Satoshi Nakamoto Right about Bitcoin Payments?

– November 3, 2021

“Satoshi was correct that card systems work ‘well enough for most transactions’ and thus bitcoin had but a bit part to play in payments. But he was wrong about bitcoin being useful with retailers for small payments and non-reversibile retail payments.” ~ J.P. Koning

Crisis, Financial Markets, Government, Monetary Policy

Crowding Out Under Quantitative Easing

– October 27, 2021

“The data speaks loudly. An accommodative monetary policy has failed to facilitate a robust economic recovery. And an artificially low federal funds rate is pumping up the federal debt and weighing on private investment.” ~ James L. Caton

Economic Education, Financial Markets, Government

A Tale of Two Pizzas: Are Property Values Really Yours to Keep?

– October 23, 2021

“You may own a monetary asset, but you’re not entitled to determine its exchange rate against other goods and services. Just because you own something, that doesn’t mean you own the prerogative of setting its price. That goes for homes too.” ~ Joakim Book

Cryptocurrency, Economic Education, Financial Markets

What If a Great Crypto Crash Is Coming?

– October 22, 2021

“Were the world to experience a new economic downturn, there is a great possibility that this lack of consumer use will show the current valuation of Bitcoin to have been a bubble. If this happens, a lot of retail investors will suffer.” ~ Benjamin Juhlin