Assessing Market Expectations of Inflation
“Those denying any risk that inflation will remain above target or confidently predicting that 4 percent inflation will be the new normal, are not within the range of reasonable. They are rightly ridiculed.” ~ William J. Luther
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An Armor Conspired: the Global Shipping Freeze
“The idea that an economy could be shut down and turned back on without far reaching consequences is damnable, and could only come from the minds with no understanding of the extraordinary interdependence of the productive sector.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Fast Payments Enable Lightning Kidnappings in Brazil
“The only way that the Banco Central do Brasil could completely end PIX-based lightning kidnapping would be to slow the entire system down. That would mean cutting regular Brazilians off completely from the benefits of real-time payments.” ~ J.P. Koning
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The Irony of China’s Most Recent Bitcoin Ban
“With the Evergrande crisis looming in the background, the crypto universe being pilloried by Chinese authorities as a ‘growing threat to financial stability’ and ‘disrupt[ive] to economic order’ is more than simply ironic. It is irony at its most mordant.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Trouble Transacting with Bitcoin
“Problems with bitcoin’s design––including its suboptimal supply constraint and limited transactions capacity––cast doubt on the claim that bitcoin is superior to the monies widely used at present.” ~ William J. Luther
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Remembering the Truly Forgotten, Twenty Years Later
“On the 20th anniversary of September 11, 2001, more will be said about military service dogs than the thousands of hardworking, productive people killed in downtown Manhattan that day. But money and finance are the font of modernity and the wellspring of American prosperity.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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What’s Wrong With Bitcoin’s Supply Mechanism?
“Bitcoin’s supply mechanism fails to provide a long-run nominal anchor or promote monetary stability. A better money would employ a supply mechanism that offsets changes in the demand to hold it.” ~ William J. Luther
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Was the OnlyFans Ban a Symptom of Creeping Financial Censorship?
“It is unfortunate that OnlyFans content creators were nearly deplatformed. However, it seems to be a local incident, and not indicative of a global decline in accessibility to payments.” ~ J.P. Koning
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Bitcoin and the Network Effects Problem
“There are steps entrepreneurs can take to help reduce the network effects problem. It is, nonetheless, an obstacle bitcoin must overcome to achieve widespread adoption.” ~ William J. Luther
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The Year of Corporate Discontent
“If you thought things were crazy on the corporate scene over the last few years, you should check out what happened in 1970. It is the stuff of blockbuster books and movies.” ~ Robert E. Wright
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Lessons from the Financial Instability Hypothesis
“The Covid-19 recession was not triggered by financial causes, but the ballooning government debt the U.S. is currently pursuing, recklessly and with a vengeance, can only substitute a new unsustainable expansion for a sustainable recovery.” ~ Robert F. Mulligan
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After Lockdown
“Risks remain and the prospects for the global economy after lockdown remain uncertain. Honest valuation remains difficult when markets are so hampered. The next decade is likely to favour the tactical investor.” ~ Colin Lloyd
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