Topic: Inflation

Economic Trends, Inflation, Monetary Policy

Black Friday 2023 Will Test Consumer Confidence

– November 23, 2023

“Although Black Friday is a day of discounts, rebates, and other sales promotions, examining the price changes in the most-marketed merchandise categories may provide some insights as to what consumers face this year.” ~Peter C. Earle

Art and Culture, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Research

AIER’s Thanksgiving Cost Index Climbs Over 5 Percent from 2022 to 2023

– November 22, 2023

“The constituents of the Thanksgiving Cost Index include turkey, sauces and gravies, bread, canned fruit, vegetables, and pies and cakes.” ~Peter C. Earle

Central Banking, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

The Fed Delivered Disinflation

– November 16, 2023

“Most prices are higher today than they would have been had they grown at an average rate of 2 percent since January 2020. We oughtn’t pin a medal on an arsonist’s chest for putting out a fire he started.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Central Banking, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

The FOMC Was Right to Not Hike

– November 7, 2023

“The best approach for the FOMC is to keep its rate target where it is. We should wait for additional inflation data in November before calling for even-tighter monetary policy.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

Inflation Remains High in September

– November 3, 2023

“The Fed should keep monetary policy tight as inflation returns to its 2-percent target. But if it tightens too much, it will push the economy into an unnecessary and painful recession.” ~William J. Luther

Inflation, International, Monetary Policy, Socialism

Argentina’s Canary in the Coalmine

– October 28, 2023

“How can one compare the US to Argentina, which has suffered a century of political instability, and has been a darling of IMF case studies for the past 40 years?” ~Nikolai G. Wenzel and Valentina Yayi Morales

Central Banking, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

Rising Treasury Yields Can’t Substitute for Fed Rate Hikes

– October 28, 2023

“If the yield curve is the explanation, then market forces aren’t ‘substituting’ for Fed policy. They’re simply reflecting an economic transition from one microeconomic equilibrium in the market for loanable funds to another.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Economic Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy

Does a Blowout Third-Quarter GDP Number Vindicate Bidenomics?

– October 25, 2023

“US citizens will, in the event of an uncommonly strong third-quarter US GDP release, benefit from taking close note of political self-aggrandizement made in its wake. Upcoming GDP releases may require reminding administration officials of statements made tomorrow regarding the prospects of Bidenomics.” ~Peter C. Earle

Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Unemployment

Weak Economy Provides Key Policy Lessons

– October 21, 2023

“Sure, supply-side factors contributed to higher prices in some markets, as did supply chain bottlenecks. But those are short-term fluctuations that don’t tell the entire story of reduced purchasing power for everyone.” ~Vance Ginn

Inflation, Sound Money Project

Inflation Ticks Up Again. Keep an Eye on Oil

– October 18, 2023

“Major changes in oil prices seem likely to drive the near-term changes in CPI inflation, both headline inflation and possibly core as well. Another big question is how the Fed will respond.” ~Thomas L. Hogan

Inflation, Monetary Policy, Sound Money Project

Steady As She Goes

– October 14, 2023

“But even if new PCE figures confirm a bump in the disinflationary road, it’s still likely best for the FOMC to hold off on further rate hikes.” ~Alexander W. Salter

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index, Inflation, Monetary Policy

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.29 Percent in September 2023

– October 12, 2023

“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle