There Is No Avoiding the Long Run: A Low Interest Rate Environment Is a Low Growth Environment
“We’ve trod down the post-Bernanke path long enough to learn that the cost of following a policy of resource allocation by the Federal Reserve instead of allowing a modestly higher rate of inflation is lower growth of real income.” ~ James L. Caton
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Assessing Potential for Higher Inflation
“Monetary policy is intentionally supporting fiscal policy and supporting levels of indebtedness from the Federal government that are unprecedented. The result has been an explosion of M2 that increases the risk of inflation. There is a fair chance that policymakers will succeed. But, for the possibility of success, they risk a monetary-fiscal crisis.” ~ James L. Caton
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A Trillion Here, a Trillion There
“In the end, the total of what comes out of the economy is limited by the total of what is produced, no matter that you can borrow or print up unlimited amounts of money. Borrowing and printing up trillions and trillions of dollars isn’t real. It’s a special form of deceit we economists call inflation.” ~ Clifford F. Thies
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Understanding The Rise In Inflation Expectations
“Bond markets are currently pricing in a little more than two percent inflation on average over the next ten years, which suggests inflation will pick up. So far, Fed officials seem willing to permit inflation to run a bit high over the next decade. Whether they will remain so permissive when the inflation numbers start rolling in––or, ratchet up IOR to bring inflation down to two percent––remains to be seen.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Rising Interest Rates and Inflation
“A 5 to 10 percent jump in inflation expectations could be enough to set off a fiscal crisis for the federal government. And a fiscal crisis could be enough to generate a crisis of confidence in the dollar. There are numerous traps to avoid on the road ahead. Yet, monetary and fiscal policy both continue on expansionary paths with the greatest boldness that we have seen since the chairmanship of Arthur Burns.” ~ James L. Caton
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Lots of New Money, But Still-Low Inflation. What Gives?
“Just because a reckless central bank foists tons of fake money on banks, businesses, and households does not mean any of them must spend it. Fiscal-monetary recklessness itself can signal private-sector actors not to part with safe, liquid assets. Eventually, of course, they may choose to flee the money and the debt, bringing higher inflation rates and higher interest rates. Meantime, the prudent observer must never neglect to consult the demand side of money.” ~ Richard M. Salsman
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Signs of Inflation so Far
“The increases in money held by the public are a new experiment to test a widely verified proposition: substantial increases in the quantity of money held by the public are associated with substantial inflation. Inflation is quite likely to be higher in coming years than it has been in the recent past. Whether the increase is muted – an increase of one percentage point per year or so – or noticeably larger remains to be seen.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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Inflation Outlook: Likely Worse Than Expected
“The Fed has painted itself into a box, because if inflation/velocity does heat up beyond what the Fed or markets can tolerate, given that they have been comfortable with somewhat higher long-term rates, the Fed’s only weapon to slow inflation down would be to slow down the economy. Its strongest weapon would be to threaten to push up the short-term rate and invert the yield curve.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis
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Yes, This Time We’ll Have Inflation, and Here’s Why
“The political forces supportive of anti-growth policies such as trade restrictions, higher minimum wages, perverse energy regulations, and cronyism appear to be on the rise, and they will dampen future growth. But inflation is going to be the big story of the post-pandemic economy. Get ready for an inflationary ride.” ~ James D. Gwartney
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Do These Money Supply Charts Portend Hyperinflation?
“Financial markets indicators suggest that high inflation is not likely. Even with a very large balance sheet, the Fed has proven that it can control inflation by paying high rates of interest on bank reserves. Whether Fed officials choose to do so is the open question.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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How Will We Pay for a $1.9 Trillion Spending Bill?
“Politicians are quick to ignore the costs of government spending in proposing legislation and obscure those costs by issuing debt rather than raising revenues. It is politically popular to issue debt and send checks to everyone. The benefits of the policy are clear: people get checks. The costs, which ripple out through financial markets as interest rates are bid up, are difficult to tie to the policy.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Yellen was Right, the Federal Debt “Should Keep People Awake at Night”
“If the burden of interest payments increases, will Congress make the difficult decisions required to reduce federal spending? What contingency plan do Yellen and Powell have in their back pocket if the dollar suffers a speculative attack owing to an unsound fiscal position? Yellen was right: ‘It’s the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.'” ~ James L. Caton
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