Monetary Policy and that Old-Time Fiscal Religion
“Nominal income targeting can potentially restore the old-time fiscal religion. Like the classical gold standard, this approach stabilizes total spending in the economy, rendering counter-cyclical fiscal policy unnecessary and ineffective.” ~ Bryan P. Cutsinger & Louis Rouanet
READ MOREMoney and Inflation Are Still Related
“M2 in 2020 and 2021 increased by the largest percentages in the last 60 years. To the surprise of the Federal Reserve (although not everyone), inflation resulted.” ~ John Devereux & Gerald P. Dwyer
READ MOREFed Raises Rate, But Signals Potential Pause in May
“In 2021 they were looking for help from recovering supply chains. Now, they are looking for help from tight financial markets. It’s time FOMC members help themselves — or, God help us all.” ~ William J. Luther
READ MOREMoral hazard is a fact of life. The Fed should focus on inflation.
“To the shame of two generations of economists-turned-policy-advisors, moral hazard is a fact of life. We don’t need to add permanent dollar depreciation to this mess.” ~ Alexander William Salter
READ MOREThe Fed Isn’t Powerless
“Responsible students of monetary policy must vigorously resist the ‘powerless Fed’ myth. All it does is absolve central bankers of responsibility for what, on the basis of good theory and mounting evidence, is primarily their fault to begin with.” ~ Alexander William Salter
READ MOREThere’s No Such Thing as a Wage-Price Spiral
“The recent uptick in inflation is worrying, and the Fed needs to get a handle on the situation before higher inflation expectations become entrenched. But the Fed doesn’t need to take a sledgehammer to labor markets to ease the economy’s pricing pressures.” ~ Alexander William Salter
READ MOREUnderstanding Inflationary Finance
“Providing revenue to the state is one of the reasons (and, perhaps the primary reason) governments worldwide monopolize the issuance of high-powered money.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
READ MOREMore Interest Rate Hikes Ahead
“Fed officials will likely continue tightening, and to a greater extent than previously projected. Their overreaction will not undo the damage of acting too late. It will make matters worse.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
READ MOREPersistently Pesky Price Pressures
“Although it may be difficult, the Fed must persevere. Elevated aggregate demand remains the best explanation for ongoing inflation. There is no reason for the Fed to ease its policy.” ~ Alexander William Salter
READ MOREInflation Surges in January
“How high rates will ultimately go depends on how inflation evolves over the next few months — and how quickly the Fed reacts to restore confidence in its longer term-inflation projections. The January PCEPI release marked a step in the wrong direction.” ~ William J. Luther
READ MOREWhat’s Up (and Down) With the Economy?
“I would keep my eye on the LEI (and AIER’s equivalent) but pay special attention to the manufacturing variables. Outside of the LEI, I would also carefully watch real wage trends and its downstream knockoffs (credit card and other debt and defaults, and the personal savings rate).” ~ Robert E. Wright
READ MORESupply Constraints and Inflation, Revisited
“The Fed was late to realize nominal spending was surging and failed to correct course promptly when it realized it had made a mistake. Prices are higher today—and will remain permanently higher—as a consequence.” ~ William J. Luther
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