“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index dropped to 46 in February. Disruptions to labor supply, shortages of materials, and logistics bottlenecks continue to pressure prices. Falling new Covid cases had the potential to support businesses’ efforts to expand production, but turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has launched a new wave of disruptions. The outlook has become highly uncertain and extreme caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Payrolls growth was strong again in February. While these results support a positive outlook for growth, geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred a new wave of risks and potential disruptions to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Services-sector expansion likely slowed in February as shortages of labor and materials continue. Fewer new cases of Covid may provide some relief but turmoil as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to disrupt the global economy and businesses.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Weekly initial claims ticked down for a second week. Overall, claims remain at a very low level and the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Light-vehicle sales slowed in February as component shortages continue to restrain production. Assemblies, inventory, and prices continued to show signs of stabilization through January, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Manufacturing-sector demand remained strong in February. Production increased despite ongoing labor and logistical issues but constraints on faster production growth continue. Recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Consumer expectations weakened again in February, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Housing permits were solid again in January. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes
READ MORE“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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