Topic: Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Shows Improvement, Suggests Continued Expansion

– February 10, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose to 63 in January with all three business cycle indicators above neutral for the first time since December 2019. The results suggest continued economic expansion with the potential for a broadening of growth in the economy. However, risks remain elevated as upward price pressures continue and Fed policymakers likely start a tightening cycle in March, raising the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January

– February 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private Payrolls Show Surprising Strength in January, Adding 444,000 Jobs

– February 4, 2022

“Payrolls growth was unexpectedly strong in January and revisions show more robust gains over the past year. The results support a positive outlook for growth and an eventual slowing of price increases, but upward price pressures may continue a while longer until production and logistical constraints are significantly reduced.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Growth May Have Slowed Again in January

– February 3, 2022

“The services sector expanded in January, but Covid continues to impact operations. Shortages of labor and materials continue to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, though cresting new cases of Covid may provide a small amount of relief.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall Again, Remain Very Low

– February 3, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again, pulling back from a three-month high two weeks ago. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

Auto Sales Stage Partial Rebound Following A Two-Month Plunge

Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Improved While Assemblies, Inventories, and Prices Stabilize

– February 2, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales picked up in January. Component shortages are still restricting production, but assemblies, inventory, and prices may be starting to stabilize, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private-Sector Job Openings Totaled Nearly 10 Million in December

– February 1, 2022

“Job openings rose again while quits eased slightly but remain near record levels. The tight labor market continues to hamper production and sustain upward pressure on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Production Constraints Slowed Expansion in the Manufacturing Sector in January

– February 1, 2022

“Expansion slowed a bit but remained strong for the manufacturing sector in January. Production issues continue to restrain supply and sustain upward pressure prices, but there may be early signs of progress on some issues.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Begins 2022 with a Drop

– January 28, 2022

“Consumer sentiment weakened again in January as consumers reacted to Covid and high prices. Some easing of supply-chain issues, policy actions by the Fed, and consumer spending decisions will all contribute to the future pace of economic activity and price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Core Capital-Goods Orders Hold at a Record High Level

– January 27, 2022

“New orders for core capital goods remained strong in December. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Inventory Accumulation Boosts Real GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter

– January 27, 2022

“Inventory accumulation boosted headline GDP growth while private domestic demand posted a modest gain. With continued pressure on prices, the Fed is moving to a tightening cycle, boosting the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell in the Latest Week

– January 27, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell back from a three-month high in the prior week and remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes