Topic: Business Conditions

Business Conditions Monthly February 2023

– March 1, 2023

“In January 2023, the AIER Leading Indicators rose to a just-above-neutral 58, with the Coincident and Lagging Indicators falling to a neutral 50. This is the most neutral the Business Conditions Monthly have been since the Spring of 2020.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Increases Nearly 1% in January 2023

– February 14, 2023

“AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.93 percent in January, following a decline of 1.3 percent in December 2022. Some persistently high and rising prices amid a slowing and uneven deflation is likely to raise the Fed’s terminal policy rate and increase the risk of recession in the next 24 months.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Business Conditions

4th Quarter 2022 GDP Shows Growth, but Deteriorating Fundamentals

– January 27, 2023

“The US economy grew in the 4th quarter of 2022, but caution is warranted. Money supply growth has turned negative, consumer and business confidence are in decline, and economic fundamentals are softening broadly.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Rose and Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in January

– January 13, 2023

“Consumer sentiment improved in January, sustaining the recent uptrend, though the overall level remains weak. Short-term inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months

– January 12, 2023

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Slightly

– January 12, 2023

“Initial claims fell slightly, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Sees a Plunge in New Orders in December

– January 6, 2023

“Services-sector survey suggests contraction in December and is consistent with weak results from the manufacturing-sector survey. Should these results persist, it would be an ominous sign for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Labor Market Shows Early Signs of Loosening

– January 6, 2023

“Payrolls rose in December, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Weakened in December

– January 5, 2023

“Light-vehicle sales slowed again in December and remain well below pre-pandemic rates. Inventories rose, and prices fell in November.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell, but Risks Linger

– January 5, 2023

“Initial claims fell to a 14-week low, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Manufacturing-Sector Contracts Again in December

– January 4, 2023

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broad weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private-Sector Job Openings Remain High Despite a Second Consecutive Decline

– January 4, 2023

“Private-sector job openings fell in November but remain high, suggesting an ongoing labor shortage. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes