Consumer Expectations for the Future Remained Weak in October
“Consumer sentiment was little changed in October as current views improved, but expectations fell. Both remain consistent with prior recessions.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Durable-Goods Orders Rose in September, Boosted by Transportation Equipment
“Only one category of durable-goods orders rose in September, suggesting caution.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Initial Claims Remain Low
“Weekly initial claims rose slightly, but the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Solid Third Quarter GDP Number Masks Pockets of Weakness
“Real GDP growth rebounded in the third quarter, but pockets of weakness are significant. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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New Single-Family Home Sales Fell in September
“New-home sales fell in September, and inventories rose again. Elevated prices and surging mortgage rates reduce affordability and are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Fell in October
“Consumer confidence fell in October as inflation expectations ticked up slightly. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Existing Home Sales Fall Again
“Existing-home sales fell again in September as reduced affordability pushes buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing is unfavorable.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Initial Claims Suggest Continued Strength for the Labor Market
“Weekly initial claims fell, and the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Single-Family Starts and Permits Continue to Fall as Mortgage Rates Rise
“Single-family housing starts and permits fell again in September as demand continued to weaken. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Industrial Output Increases to a Record High in September
“The industrial sector grew in September, posting record output. However, elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Third Consecutive Month in September
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 in September, driven by falling gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral
“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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