Topic: Business Conditions

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months

– January 12, 2023

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Slightly

– January 12, 2023

“Initial claims fell slightly, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Services-Sector Sees a Plunge in New Orders in December

– January 6, 2023

“Services-sector survey suggests contraction in December and is consistent with weak results from the manufacturing-sector survey. Should these results persist, it would be an ominous sign for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Labor Market Shows Early Signs of Loosening

– January 6, 2023

“Payrolls rose in December, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Weakened in December

– January 5, 2023

“Light-vehicle sales slowed again in December and remain well below pre-pandemic rates. Inventories rose, and prices fell in November.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell, but Risks Linger

– January 5, 2023

“Initial claims fell to a 14-week low, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Manufacturing-Sector Contracts Again in December

– January 4, 2023

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broad weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Remain High Despite a Second Consecutive Decline

– January 4, 2023

“Private-sector job openings fell in November but remain high, suggesting an ongoing labor shortage. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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The AIER Business Conditions Monthly (BCM) Model

– January 1, 2023

It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds true for economies. Research at AIER is based on sound economic theory and backed by empirical analysis. The same combination of theory and empirical study is the foundation of our Business-Cycle Conditions model. In simple terms, our model is a set of economic indicators combined in a way that anticipates turning points in a business cycle. We stress that our use of the statistical indicators is only one of the tools available to help forecast the near-future, cyclical trend of business activity.

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What is the Everyday Price Index?

– January 1, 2023

The purpose of the AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) is to measure changes in the prices of goods and services that are important to people’s everyday lives. The index reflects the price uncertainty (i.e. unexpected and unavoidable price changes) that …

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Consumer Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in December

– December 23, 2022

“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

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New Home Sales Rose Again in November, But the Outlook Remains Cautious

– December 23, 2022

“New-home sales rose in November but remain below its long-term average. High prices, bloated inventory, and elevated mortgage rates suggest a poor outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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