AIER Leading Indicators Index Returns to Neutral in May
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Retail Sales Decline in May
“Nominal and real retail sales fell in May but remain above trend. However, threats to the economy are intensifying. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Plunging to a Record Low in Early June
“Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early June and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises a Record 12.8 Percent Over the Last 12 Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.1 in May led by energy prices, pushing the 12-month gain to a record high. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Rise to the Highest Level Since January
“Weekly initial claims jumped in the latest week, continuing a modest upward trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Inflation Fears and Declining Buying Conditions Extend the May Drop in Consumer Sentiment
“Consumer sentiment fell further in late May. Inflation, economic expectations, and deteriorating buying conditions are negatives while personal finances remain a positive. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Corporate Profits Remained Strong in the First Quarter
“Corporate profits hit a record high in the first quarter despite a tight labor market and rising input costs. Companies are passing along higher costs to consumers, helping sustain historically high profit margins.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Fall but Remain Above 200,000
“Weekly initial claims fell in the latest week, but a modest upward trend is developing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Durable-goods Orders Rose Again in April
“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in April and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes
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New Single-Family Home Sales Plunged in April as Prices and Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise
“New-home sales plunged in April as prices and mortgage rates continue to surge. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Housing Activity Shows More Signs of Deterioration
“Existing-home sales fell again in April and inventory rose, though it remains low by historical comparison. Shifting housing preferences, record-high prices, and surging mortgage rates are likely to impact activity over coming months.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Hit the Highest Level Since January
“Weekly initial claims continue to trend slightly higher, but the low level still suggests a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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