Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Stable

– November 17, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, and the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Motor Vehicle Production Boosts Manufacturing Output in October

– November 16, 2022

“Industrial-sector output fell in October though motor vehicle production rose. Elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Retail Spending Was Strong in October

– November 16, 2022

“Retail spending was strong in October, but the recent inflation-adjusted trend remains weak. Threats to the economy remain significant, and risks remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Well Below Neutral

– November 14, 2022

The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in the latest month, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

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Consumer Sentiment Declined in Early November

– November 11, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell in early November and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked up, but long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Rose Slightly, but the Labor Market Remains Tight

– November 10, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose, but the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises After Three Consecutive Declines

– November 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Payroll Growth Continues, but the Pace Is Slowing

– November 4, 2022

“Payrolls posted gains in October, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Slower Expansion in the Services-Sector in October

– November 3, 2022

“Services-sector expansion slowed in October, but price pressures ticked up. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Suggest the Labor Market Remains Tight

– November 3, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell slightly, and the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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October Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Continued Weakening and Declining Price Pressures

– November 1, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests weakening activity and falling price pressures. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Rose in September

– November 1, 2022

“Private-sector job openings rebounded slightly in September, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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