Assessing Potential for Higher Inflation
“Monetary policy is intentionally supporting fiscal policy and supporting levels of indebtedness from the Federal government that are unprecedented. The result has been an explosion of M2 that increases the risk of inflation. There is a fair chance that policymakers will succeed. But, for the possibility of success, they risk a monetary-fiscal crisis.” ~ James L. Caton
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The Lumber Market Delirium
“A sordid cocktail of Covid lockdowns and expansionary monetary policy have led to explosive conditions in long-docile lumber markets.” ~ Peter C. Earle
READ MOREThe Rise of Bitcoin
“The blockchain technology at bitcoin’s core provides a new and fundamentally different way to process payments. It relies on neither decentralized nor centralized clearing. Instead, it processes transactions over a distributed network. And, by solving the double spending problem without recourse to a trusted third party, it has the potential to offer a degree of financial privacy comparable to decentralized payment mechanisms like cash.” ~ William J. Luther
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Make No Mistake: Programmable Digital Currencies Are Weaponizable Money
“Money, in its most basic form, is an irreplaceable facilitator of economic calculation and a social instrument making cooperation possible on a global scale. Policies of the sort which programmable digital currencies bring into the realm of possibility potentially turn those on their head, introducing new possibilities for intentional––and systematic––coercion.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Dangerous Monetary Manipulations and Fiscal Follies
“What is clear is that the types of monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies being implemented and projected by the Biden Administration, the Democrat-controlled Congress and the Federal Reserve are all leading America down a dangerous and destabilizing road, any recovery from which will not be easy or cheap.” ~ Richard M. Ebeling
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Understanding The Rise In Inflation Expectations
“Bond markets are currently pricing in a little more than two percent inflation on average over the next ten years, which suggests inflation will pick up. So far, Fed officials seem willing to permit inflation to run a bit high over the next decade. Whether they will remain so permissive when the inflation numbers start rolling in––or, ratchet up IOR to bring inflation down to two percent––remains to be seen.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky
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Rising Interest Rates and Inflation
“A 5 to 10 percent jump in inflation expectations could be enough to set off a fiscal crisis for the federal government. And a fiscal crisis could be enough to generate a crisis of confidence in the dollar. There are numerous traps to avoid on the road ahead. Yet, monetary and fiscal policy both continue on expansionary paths with the greatest boldness that we have seen since the chairmanship of Arthur Burns.” ~ James L. Caton
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Lots of New Money, But Still-Low Inflation. What Gives?
“Just because a reckless central bank foists tons of fake money on banks, businesses, and households does not mean any of them must spend it. Fiscal-monetary recklessness itself can signal private-sector actors not to part with safe, liquid assets. Eventually, of course, they may choose to flee the money and the debt, bringing higher inflation rates and higher interest rates. Meantime, the prudent observer must never neglect to consult the demand side of money.” ~ Richard M. Salsman
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Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?
“If bond yields cannot rise, the stock market will remain supported unless stagflation sets in. Should that transpire, the Fed will need to decide whether to ignore inflation and increase monetary stimulus, including the purchase of ETFs and common stock, in order to maintain full employment, or ‘hold’ and witness a politically unpalatable clearing of both the stock and bond market.” ~ Colin Lloyd
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Where New Zealand Goes, the World Goes
“In the 1990s New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting, an approach that every major country followed for the next three decades. In a few years we might look back at this fleeting Kiwi attempt at incorporating asset markets into monetary policy with the same admiring eyes that we now see their move to inflation targeting. Where New Zealand goes, the world tends to follow.” ~ Joakim Book
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Signs of Inflation so Far
“The increases in money held by the public are a new experiment to test a widely verified proposition: substantial increases in the quantity of money held by the public are associated with substantial inflation. Inflation is quite likely to be higher in coming years than it has been in the recent past. Whether the increase is muted – an increase of one percentage point per year or so – or noticeably larger remains to be seen.” ~ Gerald P. Dwyer
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MMT’s Inflation Battle Will End In A Draw
“Maybe this time is different, and perhaps this is the turning point – for MMT or for inflation. More likely, the fears and the ebullient promises will converge in a middle-of-the-way third option similar to what we saw after 2008: Politicians, pundits, economists, and central bankers talk, yet nothing much happens.” ~ Joakim Book
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