Topic: Monetary Policy

A Better Model Won’t Fix The Fed

– April 23, 2024

“The whole point of expectations-responsive monetary policy is to remove the discretionary and technocratic elements from central banking. Disappointingly but unsurprisingly, the Fed is doing the opposite: doubling down on discretion and technocracy.” ~Alexander W. Salter


Why Haven’t We Whipped Inflation Yet?

– April 19, 2024

“The best we can do is recalibrate models when we get new data. But that’s like driving the car while looking out the rearview window…hardly ideal for knowing how to adjust your steering.” ~Alexander W. Salter


How the US Treasury Induced a New Era of Swiss Monetary Policy

– April 11, 2024

“Central bankers are told that their domestic monetary policy obligations…must be balanced with or even subjugated to currency management practices that accommodate American exporters and competitors more broadly.” ~Mariana F. Trujillo and Peter C. Earle


AIER Everyday Price Index Hits All-Time Record in March 2024

– April 10, 2024

“It is increasingly clear that the choice to stop rate hikes at the 5.25 to 5.50 policy rate range was at best premature and may ultimately prove insufficient.” ~Peter C. Earle


The Fed and Political Independence: It’s Complicated

– April 5, 2024

“We should focus less on who’s allowed to run the Fed and more on what the Fed’s allowed to do in the first place.” ~Alexander W. Salter


Fixing A Big Mistake in Risk-Based Capital Rules

– March 27, 2024

“Both long Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by government agencies are in current regulation included as ‘High Quality Liquid Assets.’ But of course they both can and have created plenty of interest rate risk.” ~Alex J. Pollock


Young People Aren’t Nearly Angry Enough About Government Debt

– March 19, 2024

“We each owe more than $100,000 as a share of the national debt… Our earning years are subsidizing not our own economic coming-of-age, but retirement and medical benefits for people who navigated a less-challenging wealth-building landscape.” ~Laura Williams


Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?

– March 13, 2024

” Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady when they meet on March 19-20. In light of the CPI data, that’s a defensible move.” ~Alexander W. Salter


AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent

– March 12, 2024

“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle


The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday

– March 12, 2024

“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell


Does Argentina Have Enough Dollars to Dollarize?

– March 11, 2024

“It’s not that Argentina lacks dollars. Rather, it is that the Argentine government lacks the will to commit to its dollarization plan.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky


Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think

– March 7, 2024

“Higher rates could be a sign of loose money, not tight, depending on how far from the policy change we’re looking and how fast the market adapts.” ~ Alexander W. Salter