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Manufacturing output surged 1.1 percent for the latest month, pushing the 12-month gain to 3.2 percent and continuing a mild accelerating trend in place since 2016.
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AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 21 points to 58 in December. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100 while the Lagging Indicators index gained 16 points to reach 83 (see chart). The sharp decline in the Leadin …
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Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 312,000 jobs last month, the largest since February 2018. However, market volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and monetary policy suggest a cautious view is warranted.
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A drop in the ISM manufacturing new orders index suggests slower growth but payroll processor ADP estimates a surge in private hiring in December.
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AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index pulled back in November, dropping to 79 following an 83 in October and 88 in September. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index increased, moving back to 100, while the Lagging Indicators index …
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November. Despite the weak performance, the labor market remains tight.
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The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7 in November. The increase follows the manufacturing report that also posted a gain in November. The two reports suggest slightly faster expansion for the economy last month.
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The ISM PMI rose in November with broad-based gains among the components. The results suggest continued expansion for the manufacturing sector.
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Real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures rose in October suggesting fourth-quarter real GDP growth is off to a strong start.
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Sales of new single-family homes fell in October and the inventory of homes for sale rose, driving months’ supply to a seven-year high. With prices and interest rates rising, the outlook for housing is unfavorable.
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A drop in new housing permits and a plunge in homebuilder sentiment suggest the outlook for housing remains cautious.
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