Retail sales fell again in February, the second decline in the last three months. A string of mixed economic reports suggests caution is warranted.
READ MOREConsumer sentiment and new-home sales are showing gains, but the broad economic picture remains mixed. Continued expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
READ MOREReal gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, with real private domestic demand rising 2.6 percent. High levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy and global economic conditions combined with mixed economic data raise doubts about the current expansion.
READ MOREConsumer confidence fell in March but remains at a level consistent with economic expansion. Housing activity continues to weaken with no evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future.
READ MOREThe Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index posted its third negative result in a row, but the index remains above levels historically associated with either recession or significant price increases.
READ MOREThe Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey was generally favorable in March with respondents were more upbeat about current conditions but somewhat less optimistic about the future.
READ MOREConsumer sentiment improved in early March, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. The tight labor market remains one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.
READ MORENew single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent in January. Slowing sales and rising inventory are weighing on new construction, suggesting new-home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.
READ MOREAIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held steady at 42 in February while the Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index were also unchanged, at 92 and 75, respectively (see chart). Despite having the Leadi …
READ MORERetail sales growth bounced back in January, but economic data continue to be mixed, suggesting a heightened degree of caution for the economic outlook.
READ MOREU.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, the smallest monthly gain since September 2017. Combined with other recent disappointing economic data, the report raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion.
READ MOREThe ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February. The increase was led by strong performances by the activity index and the new orders index. The report suggests continued expansion for the economy last month.
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