Topic: Business Conditions

Manufacturing Output Rose 0.3 Percent in October

– November 16, 2018

The manufacturing resurgence continued as output rose 0.3 percent in October, the fifth monthly gain in a row, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 5.0 percent over the period.

Business Conditions

November Business Conditions Monthly

– November 16, 2018

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index pulled back in October, dropping to 83 following an 88 in September. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index dropped to 92 while the Lagging Indicators index held steady, posting an 83 (see char …

Business Conditions

Retail Sales Growth Rebounded in October While Initial Claims Ticked Up

– November 15, 2018

Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early November but Remains at a High Level

– November 9, 2018

Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.

Business Conditions

Initial Claims Hold Near Record Lows While Consumer Credit Growth Slows

– November 8, 2018

Initial claims remain near a record low as a percentage of the labor force while consumer credit growth slowed in September. Both are positive signs for the economy.

Business Conditions

Job Openings and Quits Remain Near Record Highs

– November 6, 2018

Open jobs in the U.S. were down slightly in September to 7.009 million, just below the record-high 7.293 million in August. Private job openings totaled 6.407 million in September. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.

Business Conditions

Private Payrolls Jumped in October and Wage Growth Accelerated

– November 2, 2018

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October and hourly earnings growth accelerated to a 3.1 percent rate, the highest since April 2009. Both are positive signs for the labor market and the economy overall.

Business Conditions

ISM Manufacturing PMI Fell in October but Suggests Continued Expansion

– November 1, 2018

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 57.7 percent reading in October. Despite a small decline, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Moved Closer to a New Record High

– October 30, 2018

Consumer Confidence rose for the fourth month in a row to 137.9, the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-time record.

Business Conditions

Consumers Drive Third-Quarter GDP Higher

– October 26, 2018

Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, driven primarily by strong gains in consumer spending. A positive outlook is further support by the results of the AIER Leading Indicators index, which scored a healthy 88 in September.

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Increase in September While Core Capital Goods Decline Slightly

– October 25, 2018

New orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September while new orders for core capital goods fell 0.1 percent. Today’s data are generally positive, but core capital-goods orders have been essentially flat over the past two months.

Business Conditions

New-Home Sales Fall Again

– October 24, 2018

Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.