Topic: Business Conditions

The Nonmanufacturing Sector Gained Momentum in February on Strength in Activity and New Orders

– March 5, 2019

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February. The increase was led by strong performances by the activity index and the new orders index. The report suggests continued expansion for the economy last month.

Business Conditions

New Data Suggest Continued Expansion in the Manufacturing Sector in February

– March 1, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 54.2 percent reading in February. Despite a small decline, the index remains above neutral—a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.

Business Conditions

Real GDP Growth Decelerated in the Fourth Quarter, but Domestic Demand Remains Robust

– February 28, 2019

Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, putting the calendar year growth at 2.9 percent, the fastest pace since 2015. Consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in the quarter, putting the calendar year increase at 2.0 percent, the fastest since 2011, and the seventh year in a row with a pace of two percent or less.

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Rose in February, But Home Construction Fell in December

– February 26, 2019

Consumer confidence rebounded in February following three consecutive declines, and suggests consumers are feeling better after a period of heightened market volatility and the government shutdown. However, housing activity continued to weaken in December, restrained by rising home prices.

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Rose in December on Strength in Consumer Durables

– February 21, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose in December, but core capital-goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

Business Conditions

Manufacturing Output Retreated in January as Vehicle Production Plunged

– February 15, 2019

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in January as vehicle assemblies fell 13.7 percent. The weak report continues a string of disappointing economic data and justifies a cautious outlook. However, economic expansion remains the most likely path.

Business Conditions

Broad Weakness in Retail Sales in December

– February 14, 2019

Retail sales fell sharply in December, the third decline in the last five months. Broadening weakness in the economy suggests caution is warranted.

Business Conditions

February Business Conditions Monthly

– February 14, 2019

AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index fell 16 points to 42 in January. The result was the first reading below 50 since August 2016. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell to 92 while the Lagging Indicators index dropped to 75 …

Business Conditions

The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in November

– February 6, 2019

The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November reflecting a smaller deficit in goods and a smaller surplus in services. Uncertainty over trade policy could restrain hiring and capital investment for some industries and threaten the broader economic outlook.

Business Conditions

Purchasing Managers Suggest Solid Growth but Lingering Concerns in January

– February 5, 2019

Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest still-solid levels of current activity with elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the future.

Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Bounce Back in November

– January 31, 2019

Sales of new single-family homes jumped 16.9 percent in November negating recent weakness, but is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.

Business Conditions

Existing Single-Family Home Sales Fall Again in December

– January 23, 2019

Existing-home sales declined in December and are 12.8 percent below the November 2017 peak. Home prices, interest rates, and uncertainty are all contributing to the weakness.