Topic: Inflation

How Much Can the Supply Chain Explain the Rise of Inflation?

– December 15, 2021

“Once we move from the realm of small price level movements to a more permanent and higher inflation rate scenario, it is more likely that the source of the rise in the price level is on the monetary side—even if the government doesn’t want to admit it.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky


Will the Fed Do Enough to Bring Down Inflation?

– December 11, 2021

“The Fed must act boldly and swiftly to course correct. Otherwise, inflation expectations could become unanchored––leaving the Fed to choose between restoring its credibility by engineering a recession or tolerating high inflation in perpetuity.” ~ William J. Luther


Not Hyperinflation, but Plenty Bad Enough

– December 9, 2021

“We see the seeds of this already in the intellectually bankrupt Modern Monetary Theory. MMT boils down to a simple policy prescription: politicians should feel free to print as much money as they want. That’s a recipe for hyperinflation.” ~ Antony Davies


Powell Pivots as Inflation Picks Up

– December 3, 2021

“Powell recommended ditching the term transitory. ‘We tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,’ he told the Senate Committee. ‘I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.’” ~ William J. Luther


Despite Fed Asset Purchases, Lending Remains Depressed

– December 2, 2021

“The Fed’s recent asset purchases appear to have significantly expanded the money supply. But given the small changes in bank lending, it is not clear what their overall effects will be on inflation and the economy.” ~ Thomas L. Hogan


Three Common Myths About Money and Inflation

– November 20, 2021

“If we oversimplify inflation, we won’t know how to fight it, or whether we should fight it at all. Political responses to economic turmoil are bad enough without the additional complication of widespread misperceptions amongst the public.” ~ Alexander William Salter


The Horrors Of A Noninflationary Thanksgiving

– November 18, 2021

“Thanksgiving is arriving against a backdrop of worry and complaints, as CPI inflation is up 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. Monetary policy alchemists are forcing Americans to reconsider long-held traditions this year.” ~ Peter C. Earle


What Does ‘Transitory Inflation’ Really Mean?

– October 29, 2021

“Whether the Fed will conduct policy to render the recent episode of inflation transitory in either sense of the term remains to be seen. My view, informed by market expectations, is that the rate of inflation will eventually decline to something in the neighborhood of 2 percent.” ~ William J. Luther


Inflation and Consumer Welfare: Don’t Forget the Supply Side!

– October 15, 2021

“Let’s keep our eye on the supply side. We should be making every effort, policy-wise, to ease restrictions on production and exchange. That will help both in the short run and the long run.” ~ Alexander W. Salter


Assessing Market Expectations of Inflation

– October 13, 2021

“Those denying any risk that inflation will remain above target or confidently predicting that 4 percent inflation will be the new normal, are not within the range of reasonable. They are rightly ridiculed.” ~ William J. Luther


Is Larry Summers Channeling Benjamin Anderson?

– October 13, 2021

“The post-2008 framework has incentivized the destabilization of monetary policy. The sooner we recognize this fact, the sooner we can seriously discuss a solution to the problem.” ~ James L. Caton


Is Inflation Above the Fed’s Target?

– October 7, 2021

“A credible Fed would anchor expectations to its target growth path. Unfortunately, the Fed has not been credible in the past. That leaves us with a much more difficult question today: what should the Fed do when it hasn’t done what it should have done?” ~ William J. Luther