When Crowds Go Mad

– June 3, 2021

“Much like his role model’s chief literary achievement, all is not well in this otherwise highly enjoyable book. Bernstein often resorts to simplified and unproved evolutionary just-so stories to account for the lunacy he colorfully describes.” ~ Joakim Book

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The Backward-Looking Storyteller

– May 27, 2021

“History is slow, with fascinating moments and events scattered among tons and tons of mundane and inconsequential things. When we select some of them and weave them into an iconic story, we often make a mockery of the past – and ourselves a disservice.” ~ Joakim Book

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Pocket Monsters Meet Animal Spirits

– May 24, 2021

“Lockdowns, boredom, and fiscal largesse sparked the incredible rise in Pokémon card values. But the Greater Fool Theory may already be at work.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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Lift Your Gaze, Please: the April Inflation Overshoot is Not the Problem

– May 18, 2021

“A betting man, if he wants to remain a betting man, updates his priors. So, I side with Jason Bloom at the asset manager Invesco: ‘There is so much dislocation in the economy from the reopening and base effects from a year ago that it will take at least six to 12 months before we get a clear view of the underlying inflation trend.’ I will make a different sort of prediction, though: no matter what the future holds, the Chickens will be there to squawk about it.” ~ Joakim Book

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To Lean, Clean, or Reign Supreme

– May 16, 2021

“After a decade or more of economic and financial events that put central banks under heavy strain – financial collapse, a slow and timid recovery, the pandemic – strange things are again amiss in financial markets. Broda and Druckenmiller are right to say that ‘the Fed seems to be fighting the last battle.’ Ironically, so are they: we’re back in the lean-or-clean debate of twenty years ago.” ~ Joakim Book

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War Of Words Over Inflation Stirs Questions for the Fed

– May 15, 2021

“Does it make sense, for a nation founded on the notion of individual liberty, equality under the law, and personal property rights, to allow a government agency to manipulate the value of the currency used by its citizens? Would it be better to have a stable monetary foundation to facilitate free-market outcomes, rather than empower the Federal Reserve to distort interest rates and dilute dollars in the service of government policy?” ~ Judy Shelton

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The Lumber Market Delirium

– May 11, 2021

“A sordid cocktail of Covid lockdowns and expansionary monetary policy have led to explosive conditions in long-docile lumber markets.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money

– April 28, 2021

“The Everything Bubble is a grand illusion, money is growing more plentiful, credit more available. Asset prices are not really rising; it is the value of money which is being systematically undermined. I wonder whether the motto for this pandemic will be carpe diem, quam minimum credula pecunia – seize the day, place no trust in money?” ~ Colin Lloyd

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The Buffett Indicator: Reasons for Doubt

– April 16, 2021

“There are other reasons for the Buffett Indicator ratio to be trending higher. Corporate earnings are growing nearly twice as rapidly as the growth in nominal GDP. The Buffett indicator, though at high historical levels, is not per se signaling that the market is overvalued.” ~ Gregory van Kipnis

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Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?

– March 27, 2021

“If bond yields cannot rise, the stock market will remain supported unless stagflation sets in. Should that transpire, the Fed will need to decide whether to ignore inflation and increase monetary stimulus, including the purchase of ETFs and common stock, in order to maintain full employment, or ‘hold’ and witness a politically unpalatable clearing of both the stock and bond market.” ~ Colin Lloyd

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Where New Zealand Goes, the World Goes

– March 26, 2021

“In the 1990s New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting, an approach that every major country followed for the next three decades. In a few years we might look back at this fleeting Kiwi attempt at incorporating asset markets into monetary policy with the same admiring eyes that we now see their move to inflation targeting. Where New Zealand goes, the world tends to follow.” ~ Joakim Book

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The Business Economics of The Office

– March 24, 2021

“Though The Office may offer a somewhat exaggerated account of entrepreneurial alertness, economic calculation, and the vagaries of corporate management, the broader strokes of its characters’ endeavors are informative. Namely, these are concepts that lie in the pages of economics and business textbooks, accompanied by graphs that make the layman’s head turn. Yet, viewed through the lens of Dunder Mifflin’s trials and tribulations, these concepts become accessible––even subconsciously.” ~ Peter C Earle & Amelia Janaskie

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