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Preliminary estimates suggest retail sales were modest in November implying slow growth remains the most likely path.
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The AIER Leading Indicators index posted a small gain in November but remains close to neutral, supporting a cautious outlook.
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Weekly initial claims jumped but the data tend to be quite volatile, especially around the holidays. Overall, the labor market remains tight.
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Small-business confidence rose in November despite concerns over labor shortages.
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A strong November jobs report suggests support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion, though erratic policies could weigh on consumer and business confidence.
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The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in November, but the mixed results and near-neutral level of the composite index perpetuates doubts about the strength of the economy.
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Nonresidential construction activity continues at a high level though the broader trend is essentially flat.
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The ISM’s manufacturing PMI posted a fourth consecutive month below neutral in November. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.
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Housing activity is enjoying a tailwind from the drop in mortgage rates but housing activity is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.
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Consumer sentiment has trended slightly lower in recent months but remains at a high level; partisan differences remain significant.
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Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but the upside remains limited.
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Core retail sales were weak in October adding to concern about the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
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