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Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.
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Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.
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U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.
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Carrying an umbrella even when it doesn’t rain is a small price to pay.
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The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.
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Over the past half century in the U.S., yield-curve inversions have been important because they’ve reliably predicted all seven U.S. recessions.
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The specific conditions that predicated the 2008 financial crisis are not in place this time around.
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Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.
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Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.
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Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.
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Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.
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