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Consumer sentiment maintained a generally high level by historical comparison in early November.
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The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in October, diverging from the manufacturing-sector contraction. Erratic and unpredictable policies may be hurting manufacturing and the labor market.
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Auto sales fell in October but remain at a high level. While economic data is mixed, the labor market remains solid and the outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
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The ISM’s manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for a third consecutive month. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.
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A solid October jobs report suggests continued economic expansion. However, growth has slowed and may leave the economy more vulnerable to erratic policies and elevated uncertainty.
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The economy expanded at a modest pace in the third quarter and remains vulnerable to continued erratic policy causing further damage.
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Consumer sentiment improved in October, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. However, negative headlines about on going trade wars and risks to the economy have caused volatility recently.
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New orders for durable goods and core capital-goods decreased in September but continue in a broad flat trend, holding at a relatively high level, and suggesting slow growth.
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Existing-home sales fell 2.2 percent in September and are about even with levels from 2016. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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Single-family home construction picked up in September while an auto-production strike weighed on an already weak manufacturing sector. Erratic policy and elevated uncertainty continue to restrain activity and keep the economy vulnerable.
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AIER’s Leading Indicators index fell in September but remains slightly above neutral. Risks to the economy are rising.
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Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
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