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Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.
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Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.
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The most well-known of the movies on the 2008 financial crisis is also the weakest. On the other hand, there are two wonderful films about it that deal with both the difficult times for traders and the underlying causes.
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AIER’s Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index rebounded in the latest month, registering an 83 in August. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index held at 100 while the Lagging Indicators index also held steady, posting an 83 (see chart belo …
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Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.
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“Karl Marx gave the world the myth that economic crises are inherent to capitalism. Yet overwhelming evidence says they result from war and political unrest, or come from natural events.” ~ Antony Mueller
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The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.
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“A crucial reason why monetary and fiscal planners fail traces to the indicators they use as the signposts for what they may need to do are themselves false signals hiding from view the reality of the complex market system.” ~ Richard Ebeling
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.
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The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to a reading of 58.5 from 55.7 in July. The results suggest the nonmanufacturing sector continued to grow in August. That performance is in line with the report for the manufacturing sector and other recent data that point to ongoing expansion for the overall economy.
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The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 61.3 reading in August, the highest reading since 2004. All five components of the PMI showed stronger readings in the latest month. Today’s report suggests a positive outlook for manufacturing.
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