Topic: Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Posts Sixth Consecutive Month Below Neutral

– December 14, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index came in at 29 in November, the sixth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. The low readings are consistent with economic weakness and significantly elevated risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fourth Time in Five Months

– December 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.2 in November, the fourth decline in the last five months. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Sentiment Improved in Early December but Remains Weak

– December 9, 2022

“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked down, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Consumer Debt Growth is Accelerating

– December 9, 2022

“Consumer credit rose in October, and the growth rate is accelerating. Consumer balance sheets are in good shape, but the combination of rising debt levels and rising interest rates could be a problem down the road.” – Robert Hughes

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Average Weekly Initial Claims Hits the Highest Level Since September

– December 8, 2022

“Rising weekly initial claims and increasing job cut announcements may signal some labor market softening. Rapid consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Services-Sector Activity Accelerated in November

– December 5, 2022

“Services-sector survey suggests expansion continued in November, and respondents were generally optimistic. However, the outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Fell in November

– December 5, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales fell in November following a rise in inventory and drop in prices in October.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Payroll Gains Beat Expectations, but the Pace Is Slowing

– December 2, 2022

“Payrolls gains beat expectations in November, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Manufacturing-Sector Contracts in November

– December 1, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broadening weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Trend Higher

– December 1, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, but the rising trend in the four-week average and increasing job cut announcements are a warning. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Private-Sector Job Openings Remain High Despite Falling in October

– November 30, 2022

“Private-sector job openings fell in October but remain high, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

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Third Quarter GDP Revised Higher but Pockets of Weakness Persist

– November 30, 2022

“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand remained weak. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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