Manufacturing Output Posts a Solid Gain in July

– August 17, 2021

“Industrial output rose in July as output jumped in the volatile motor vehicle industry. Ongoing difficulties with labor, logistics, and materials shortages should ease in the coming months and quarters, but the recent surge in new Covid cases does represent a risk to the outlook for industrial output.” – Robert Hughes

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Total and Core Retail Sales Fell in July

– August 17, 2021

“Retail sales fell in July and the trend over the last three months is noticeably weaker. Continued recovery in the labor market and gains in wages are needed to support retail sales growth.” – Robert Hughes

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Fears of Delta Variant Send Consumer Sentiment Plunging in Early August

– August 13, 2021

“Consumer sentiment plunged in early August as consumers react to the spread of the Delta variant and rise in new Covid cases. The survey results add to the list of risks challenging the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Suggests Continued Growth as Risks Grow

– August 12, 2021

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a fourth consecutive small decline in July, falling to 75. While the pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth could narrow in the future, the July result remains at a level consistent with continued economic expansion in coming months, but the threats to future growth may be growing.” – Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Continue to Hover Just Under 400,000

– August 12, 2021

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again in the latest week but remain range-bound. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower but rising Covid cases are increasing uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes

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Everyday Price Index Outpaces the CPI in July

– August 11, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again, led by food and energy. Prices for many goods and services are still distorted by the lingering effects of government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes

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Small Business Sentiment Drops on Labor and Materials Shortages, Weakening Economic Outlook

– August 10, 2021

“Small-business confidence declined in July as expectations for the economy weakened, labor difficulties continued, and supply-chain disruptions restrained production.” – Robert Hughes

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The Big Churn: Job Openings and Quits Rise Again in June

– August 9, 2021

“Job openings hit another record high in June with quits rising and layoffs extremely low.” – Robert Hughes

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July Jobs Report Not as Impressive as Headline Suggests

– August 6, 2021

“Payrolls posted a strong gain in July though details were not as strong as the headline suggests. The overall outlook is tilted to the upside, but challenges remain, and risks are growing.” – Robert Hughes

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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Are Flattening Out

– August 5, 2021

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly in the latest week but the trend appears to be flattening. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower, but the Delta variant is increasing uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes

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Services-Sector Survey Suggests Strong Growth in July

– August 4, 2021

“The services sector expanded again in July, but shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output and put upward pressure on prices.” – Robert Hughes

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Unit Auto Sales Fell in July as Inventories Plunge and Prices Jump

– August 4, 2021

“Light-vehicle sales fell again in July, falling farther below the recent range. A semiconductor shortage continues to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to jump.” – Robert Hughes

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