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It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds true for economies. Research at AIER is based on sound economic theory and backed by empirical analysis. The same combination of theory and empirical study is the foundation of our Business-Cycle Conditions model. In simple terms, our model is a set of economic indicators combined in a way that anticipates turning points in a business cycle. We stress that our use of the statistical indicators is only one of the tools available to help forecast the near-future, cyclical trend of business activity.
READ MOREThe purpose of the AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) is to measure changes in the prices of goods and services that are important to people’s everyday lives. The index reflects the price uncertainty (i.e. unexpected and unavoidable price changes) that …
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“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“New-home sales rose in November but remain below its long-term average. High prices, bloated inventory, and elevated mortgage rates suggest a poor outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Durable-goods orders fell in November while growth in real durable-goods orders and real core capital goods orders remains modest.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand growth remained soft. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Existing-home sales fell again in November as reduced affordability pushes buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing remains unfavorable.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Consumer confidence rebounded in December, but consumer expectations remain at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“New housing permits fell again in November as low affordability suppresses demand. Very low homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Nominal and real retail spending fell in November, and trends remain weak. Risks for the economic outlook remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Industrial-sector output fell in November. Elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“Initial claims fell to a three-month low while continuing claims jumped to an eight-month high. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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