Topic: Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Declined in Early November

– November 11, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell in early November and remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked up, but long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Rose Slightly, but the Labor Market Remains Tight

– November 10, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose, but the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises After Three Consecutive Declines

– November 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Payroll Growth Continues, but the Pace Is Slowing

– November 4, 2022

“Payrolls posted gains in October, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Slower Expansion in the Services-Sector in October

– November 3, 2022

“Services-sector expansion slowed in October, but price pressures ticked up. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Suggest the Labor Market Remains Tight

– November 3, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell slightly, and the low level suggests the labor market remains tight. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

October Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Continued Weakening and Declining Price Pressures

– November 1, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests weakening activity and falling price pressures. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private-Sector Job Openings Rose in September

– November 1, 2022

“Private-sector job openings rebounded slightly in September, suggesting continued resilience. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Expectations for the Future Remained Weak in October

– October 28, 2022

“Consumer sentiment was little changed in October as current views improved, but expectations fell. Both remain consistent with prior recessions.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Rose in September, Boosted by Transportation Equipment

– October 27, 2022

“Only one category of durable-goods orders rose in September, suggesting caution.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Initial Claims Remain Low

– October 27, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose slightly, but the low level suggests the labor market remains solid. Rapid price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Solid Third Quarter GDP Number Masks Pockets of Weakness

– October 27, 2022

“Real GDP growth rebounded in the third quarter, but pockets of weakness are significant. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes