Topic: Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Jump but Prices Sink

– January 26, 2022

“New-home sales rose in December, but prices plunged, and months’ supply remains relatively high. Rising prices, higher mortgage rates, and continued inventory build may continue to weigh on price increases.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Confidence Softened in January

– January 25, 2022

“Consumer expectations weakened in January, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Existing Home Sales Fell in December and Supply Remains Extremely Tight

– January 20, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell sharply in December, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences and rising mortgage rates are likely to continue to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise for a Third Consecutive Week

– January 20, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high, possibly impacted by the recent surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Housing Permits Were Hot in December but Rising Mortgage Rates May Cool Them Off

– January 19, 2022

“Housing activity was solid in December. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Manufacturing Output Fell Slightly in December

– January 14, 2022

“Industrial output fell in December, but many industries are producing more now than prior to the pandemic. Still, it may take some time for materials shortages and logistical problems to be fully resolved.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Retail Spending Fell Sharply in December

– January 14, 2022

“Retail sales fell in December but remain at a high level, sustaining pressure on prices. However, there may be early signs of easing pressures as sales growth moderates and inventories rise.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise to the Highest Level Since November

– January 13, 2022

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high, possibly impacted by the current surge in new Covid cases. Regardless, the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

Drop in Gas Holds AIER’s Everyday Price Index Down in December

– January 12, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index was unchanged in December as falling motor fuels prices offset other gains. Despite waves of new Covid cases, progress boosting output is being made and that should eventually ease some price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Inflation

AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Neutral for a Third Consecutive Month

– January 11, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady again in December, coming in at a neutral 50 for a third month. The result suggests continued economic expansion but with elevated risks. Shortages of labor and materials continue to sustain upward pressure on prices but there may be some early signs of easing for some of those issues.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Payrolls Recovery Remained Subdued in December

– January 7, 2022

“Payrolls growth disappointed again in December. While the outlook is for continued recovery, difficulties hiring may restrain output growth, sustaining upward price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Growth May Have Slowed in December

– January 6, 2022

“The services sector expanded for the 19th consecutive month in December. While shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, some data suggest some pressures may be starting to ease.” ~ Robert Hughes