ISM PMI

Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February

– March 2, 2020

The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.

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GDP

Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent

– February 27, 2020

Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.

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Durable goods orders

Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend

– February 27, 2020

Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.

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Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher

– February 25, 2020

Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.

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Existing home sales

Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight

– February 21, 2020

Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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housing starts and permits

New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January

– February 19, 2020

Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.

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manufacturing

Positive Surprise for Manufacturing

– February 18, 2020

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests the manufacturing sector may be rebounding but the outlook remains uncertain.

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Retail sales

Retail Spending Remains Close to Trend in January

– February 14, 2020

Retail sales were solid in January suggesting continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Small-Business Optimism Rose in January but the Outlook Is Less Clear

– February 11, 2020

Small-business confidence rose in January; labor shortages and the economic outlook remain concerns.

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Job openings

Job Openings Decline in December, Continuing Downward Trend

– February 11, 2020

Private-sector job openings have fallen recently hinting at some marginal easing of labor pressures.

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Employment report

Employment and the Participation Rate Rose in January

– February 7, 2020

U.S. payrolls rose by 225,000 in January with both the unemployment rate and participation rate ticking up; however, significant risks remain.

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Business Conditions Monthly

February 2020 Business Conditions Monthly

– February 6, 2020

A decline for the AIER Leading Indicators index leaves the index at a neutral 50 for January

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