Topic: Business Conditions

Manufacturing Output Falls for a Second Consecutive Month in June

– July 15, 2022

“Industrial output fell in June, led by declines in manufacturing. Production issues, price pressures, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Remained Near Record Lows in Early July

– July 15, 2022

“Consumer sentiment ticked up in early July but remains near record lows and consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Real Retail Sales Decline for the Third Time in Four Months

– July 15, 2022

“Real retail sales fell in June and the recent trend is essentially flat. Threats to the economy are intensifying. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Rise to the Highest Level Since November

– July 14, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose again, pushing the four-week average to a seven-month high. The combination of sustained elevated rates of price increases and softening labor market are becoming a major risk for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 2.4 Percent in June

– July 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.4 in June, pushing the 12-month gain to another record high. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to the Lowest Level Since August 2020

– July 13, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell to 42 in June. Any additional declines that take the leading index farther below the current reading would suggest a significantly higher risk of recession. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private Payrolls Growth Stayed Strong in June

– July 8, 2022

“Payroll gains remained solid in June, though there are mounting signs of easing in the labor market. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Average Weekly Initial Claims Rise Again

– July 7, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose pushing the four-week average higher again. The combination of sustained elevated rates of price increases and softening labor market are becoming a major risk for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Fall for a Second Consecutive Month

– July 6, 2022

“Private-sector job openings and quits fell in May. The effects of rising interest rates and consumer caution are becoming more apparent. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Survey Suggests Continued Expansion in June

– July 6, 2022

“Services-sector expansion continued in June despite ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures. Some notes of caution were also starting to emerge. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Rose in June, but Remain Weak

– July 5, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales rose in June but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies fell in May as component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Slowing Growth and Slightly Fewer Price Pressures

– July 1, 2022

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests supply and demand may be moving closer to balance. However, persistently elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed policy tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes