Topic: Business Conditions

Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Plunging to a Record Low in Early June

– June 10, 2022

“Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early June and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises a Record 12.8 Percent Over the Last 12 Months

– June 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.1 in May led by energy prices, pushing the 12-month gain to a record high. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Rise to the Highest Level Since January

– June 9, 2022

“Weekly initial claims jumped in the latest week, continuing a modest upward trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Inflation Fears and Declining Buying Conditions Extend the May Drop in Consumer Sentiment

– May 27, 2022

“Consumer sentiment fell further in late May. Inflation, economic expectations, and deteriorating buying conditions are negatives while personal finances remain a positive. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Corporate Profits Remained Strong in the First Quarter

– May 26, 2022

“Corporate profits hit a record high in the first quarter despite a tight labor market and rising input costs. Companies are passing along higher costs to consumers, helping sustain historically high profit margins.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Fall but Remain Above 200,000

– May 26, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell in the latest week, but a modest upward trend is developing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Durable-goods Orders Rose Again in April

– May 25, 2022

“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in April and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Plunged in April as Prices and Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise

– May 24, 2022

“New-home sales plunged in April as prices and mortgage rates continue to surge. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Housing Activity Shows More Signs of Deterioration

– May 19, 2022

“Existing-home sales fell again in April and inventory rose, though it remains low by historical comparison. Shifting housing preferences, record-high prices, and surging mortgage rates are likely to impact activity over coming months.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Hit the Highest Level Since January

– May 19, 2022

“Weekly initial claims continue to trend slightly higher, but the low level still suggests a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Warning Flags for Home Construction

– May 18, 2022

“Single-family starts and permits fell in April. Surging mortgage rates and record home prices are major headwinds for demand, and when combined with elevated commodity costs, are pummeling homebuilder sentiment.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Industrial Output Posts Fourth Consecutive Strong Gain

– May 17, 2022

“Industrial output rose again in April, the fourth solid gain in a row. However, shortages continue, sustaining upward pressure on prices. Combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, and a new Fed tightening cycle, the risks to the economy remain significant.” ~ Robert Hughes