Topic: Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Move to a Flat Trend

– August 18, 2022

“Weekly initial claims fell, and revised data suggest the recent upward trend may be flattening. Rapid price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Nominal and Real Core Retail Sales Increase in July

– August 17, 2022

“Real core retail sales rose in July, and the recent trend is modestly higher. However, threats to the economy remain significant. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Industrial Output Posts Solid Gains in July

– August 16, 2022

“Industrial output rose to a record high in July. However, elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Single-Family Starts and Permits Fell Again in July

– August 16, 2022

“Single-family housing starts and permits fell in July as demand continued to weaken. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Improved in Early August but Remains Very Low

– August 12, 2022

“Consumer sentiment ticked up in early August but hovers near record lows. Inflation expectations eased but remain a driver of weak consumer attitudes. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Increase for the Fifth Time in the Last Six Weeks

– August 11, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, low consumer confidence, and aggressive Fed tightening are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions, Everyday Price Index

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 0.6 Percent in July

– August 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.6 in July, the first drop since November 2020. An intensifying Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to 29, Signals Broadening Weakness

– August 8, 2022

The AIER Leading Indicators Index is well below neutral, signaling broadening weakness in the economy and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

Business Conditions

Big Upside Surprise for the July Jobs Report

– August 5, 2022

“Payrolls posted a strong gain in July, though other labor market indicators are still questionable. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims Increase for the Fourth Time in the Last Five Weeks

– August 4, 2022

“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, aggressive Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Services-Sector Activity Picks Up in July

– August 3, 2022

“Services-sector expansion continued in July. Ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures are still concerns, as are emerging signs of softening demand and a weakening economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Rose for a Second Consecutive Month but Remain Weak

– August 3, 2022

“Light-vehicle sales rose again in July but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes