Rising Prices Boost Durable-goods Orders in June
“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in June, but much of it is from price increases. Rising prices, Fed policy tightening, and global turmoil are sustaining elevated risks.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Continue to Trend Higher
“Weekly initial claims fell, but the trend remains upward. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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U.S. Posts Second Consecutive Drop in Real GDP
“Real GDP fell for a second consecutive quarter, but real private domestic demand has performed better, and core PCE price increases decelerated. Fed tightening, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Continued to Weaken in July
“Consumer expectations sank again in July, as fears of high inflation persist. Elevated price pressures, the fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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New Single-Family Home Sales Fall for the Fifth Time in Six Months
“New-home sales fell in June, and inventories continued to surge. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates are likely to weaken future demand.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Rise to an Eight-Month High
“Weekly initial claims rose again, extending the recent upward trend. The combination of sustained elevated rates of price increases and softening labor market are becoming a major risk for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Housing Continues to Crumble
“Existing-home sales fell again in June with record-high prices and surging mortgage rates continuing to reduce affordability and push buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Single-Family Home Construction Retreat Continued in June
“Housing starts and permits fell in June as demand weakened. Plunging homebuilder sentiment suggests a deteriorating outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Manufacturing Output Falls for a Second Consecutive Month in June
“Industrial output fell in June, led by declines in manufacturing. Production issues, price pressures, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Remained Near Record Lows in Early July
“Consumer sentiment ticked up in early July but remains near record lows and consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Real Retail Sales Decline for the Third Time in Four Months
“Real retail sales fell in June and the recent trend is essentially flat. Threats to the economy are intensifying. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Rise to the Highest Level Since November
“Weekly initial claims rose again, pushing the four-week average to a seven-month high. The combination of sustained elevated rates of price increases and softening labor market are becoming a major risk for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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