Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 312,000 jobs last month, the largest since February 2018. However, market volatility and uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and monetary policy suggest a cautious view is warranted.
A drop in the ISM manufacturing new orders index suggests slower growth but payroll processor ADP estimates a surge in private hiring in December.
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7 in November. The increase follows the manufacturing report that also posted a gain in November. The two reports suggest slightly faster expansion for the economy last month.
The ISM PMI rose in November with broad-based gains among the components. The results suggest continued expansion for the manufacturing sector.
Real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures rose in October suggesting fourth-quarter real GDP growth is off to a strong start.
Sales of new single-family homes fell in October and the inventory of homes for sale rose, driving months’ supply to a seven-year high. With prices and interest rates rising, the outlook for housing is unfavorable.
Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.
Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.
Initial claims remain near a record low as a percentage of the labor force while consumer credit growth slowed in September. Both are positive signs for the economy.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October and hourly earnings growth accelerated to a 3.1 percent rate, the highest since April 2009. Both are positive signs for the labor market and the economy overall.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 57.7 percent reading in October. Despite a small decline, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
Consumer Confidence rose for the fourth month in a row to 137.9, the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-time record.
Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, driven primarily by strong gains in consumer spending. A positive outlook is further support by the results of the AIER Leading Indicators index, which scored a healthy 88 in September.
New orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September while new orders for core capital goods fell 0.1 percent. Today’s data are generally positive, but core capital-goods orders have been essentially flat over the past two months.
Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.