Business-Cycle Conditions

Tuesday, April 10th, 2018

The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business fell in March but the result extends a run of 16 consecutive months above 100, a very high level by historical comparison. A significant concern among small businesses is the declining quality of the available labor force, particularly in the context of an already tight labor market and robust plans for increased hiring in the near future.

Friday, April 6th, 2018

The employment report was weaker than expected for March, adding just 103,000 new jobs for the month. However, there are a number of tensions among the details of the report and with other measures of the labor market. Certainly, the BLS report could be the first of a string of weaker reports on the labor market and the economy more broadly, but the preponderance of data still support a positive outlook.

Wednesday, March 28th, 2018

Real GDP grew at a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter as domestic demand surged. Most of the major components of GDP made positive contributions, and core consumer prices rose at a modest pace, however, corporate profits did show a decline.

Tuesday, March 27th, 2018

The Consumer Confidence Survey from The Conference Board shows consumer attitudes pulled back slightly in March but remain at historically favorable levels overall, suggesting support for ongoing economic expansion.

Friday, November 7th, 2014

Recent data show that steady growth of the U.S. economy continues. After a disappointing first quarter of the year, gross domestic product posted healthy increases in the second and third quarters, at 4.6 and 3.5 percent annual rates. 

Thursday, October 2nd, 2014

The Great Recession of 2008-2009 will be remembered for its severity—a cumulative decline of 4.2 percent in real GDP, the loss of 8.7 million jobs, and a harsh toll on the banking system with more than 400 bank failures from 2008 to 2011. The Great Recession should also be remembered for the massive increase in the federal budget deficit it spawned.

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

As Labor Day marked the unofficial end of summer 2014 with backyard barbecues or long days at the beach, long gone were thoughts of the harsh winter and decline in first-quarter GDP. As we had expected it would, the U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter, proving the naysayers, pessimists, and doom and gloom types completely wrong. In addition, U.S. equity markets continued to move higher throughout the summer, with many benchmarks hitting record highs. Twenty-fourteen was certainly no year to “sell in May and go away.”  

Tuesday, August 5th, 2014

Fifty years ago, the world was a different place. In 1964, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, China detonated its first atomic bomb, Russian Premier Nikita Khruschev was deposed, and Nelson Mandela was sentenced to life in prison. In the U.S., Lyndon Johnson received the democratic nomination for President, the Warren Commission’s report on the assassination of President Kennedy was released, New York hosted the World’s Fair, Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, the Beatles appeared on The Ed Sullivan Show, and the S&P 500 hit a peak of 86.28 in November. 

Monday, June 30th, 2014

Gas prices’ 15 percent jump in six months may be painful at the pump but is moderate by historical measures and not enough to derail the economic expansion.

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

An improving economy and favorable financial conditions suggest a positive outlook.

Thursday, May 1st, 2014

Single-family housing recovery at risk from rising interest rates and restricted credit.

Monday, April 7th, 2014

With the spring home-building season approaching, we expect the multi-family segment to be the strongest part of the housing market.

Tuesday, March 4th, 2014

Severe weather has slowed the economy resulting in a drop in our Business Cycle Conditions indicators, but we believe the effects are temporary.

Thursday, February 6th, 2014

Forecasts for global economic growth are rising, providing some upside potential for U.S. exports – but risks remain.

Thursday, January 9th, 2014

AIER’s researchers identify six key areas to watch in 2014.

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

Strong readings from AIER’s indicators reinforce a positive outlook for the holiday shopping season.

Friday, November 8th, 2013

The latest update to AIER’s indicators of Business-Cycle Conditions suggests economic growth is likely to continue.

Friday, October 25th, 2013

The Federal Reserve surprised market watchers in mid-September by reaffirming its stimulative monetary policy, citing slow progress in the economic recovery.

Monday, September 16th, 2013

Expansion continues, but stagnating personal incomes pose a threat to long-term growth.

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