Business-Cycle Conditions

Tuesday, September 17th, 2019

Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.

Friday, September 13th, 2019

Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

Thursday, September 12th, 2019

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.

Tuesday, September 10th, 2019

Small business confidence weakened in August while job openings fell very slightly in July, but both remain at high levels. Economic data overall have been mixed and uncertainty remains high. Caution is warranted.

Friday, September 6th, 2019

U.S. private payrolls added just 96,000 jobs in August, raising concerns about the strength of the labor market and durability of the economic expansion. Erratic and unpredictable policy remain the biggest risks.

Thursday, September 5th, 2019

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rebounded in August, countering the weak results from the manufacturing report. However, erratic and unpredictable policies are keeping risks elevated.

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2019

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below neutral for the first time in three years and highlights the growing negative impact of poor trade policy on business confidence.

Monday, August 26th, 2019

Durable-goods orders rose for a second consecutive month, but the trend is essentially flat over the past year. Erratic, politically motivated policy remains the biggest risk to the economy.

Friday, August 23rd, 2019

New-home sales fell in July, and there is little evidence to support an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

Friday, August 23rd, 2019

When businesses face uncertainty they tend to play it safe and hold back from making any big moves that entail risk but might reinvigorate the economy. The same can be said for consumers.

Wednesday, August 21st, 2019

Existing-home sales are recovering from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.

Friday, August 16th, 2019

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in August in reaction to the latest trade and monetary policy decisions.

Friday, August 16th, 2019

Single-family housing activity has stabilized, but there is little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future; multifamily housing activity remains robust.

Thursday, August 15th, 2019

Retail sales rose again in July, but industrial production fell. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

Thursday, August 8th, 2019

Initial claims near 200,000 and private job openings near 7 million suggest the labor market remains tight, supporting personal incomes, consumer confidence, and future consumer spending.

Monday, August 5th, 2019

Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to continued though uneven growth.

Friday, August 2nd, 2019

A solid though not spectacular July jobs report points to continued modest economic growth. It also adds to the uncertainty around monetary policy, making justification for the most recent rate cut and future rate cuts more difficult.

Thursday, August 1st, 2019

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its fourth-straight decline and lowest reading since September 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

Wednesday, July 31st, 2019

ADP estimates 156,000 new jobs were created in July. Overall, the labor market remains solid, and while uncertainty over trade and monetary policy remain, the most likely path is for continued expansion.

Tuesday, July 30th, 2019

Consumer confidence rebounded in July and remains at a high level. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.