Business-Cycle Conditions
NFIB Small Business Optimism

Small-Business Optimism Rose in November

– December 10, 2019

Small-business confidence rose in November despite concerns over labor shortages.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Employment report

Labor Market Shows Resilience in November

– December 6, 2019

A strong November jobs report suggests support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion, though erratic policies could weigh on consumer and business confidence.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
ISM services sector

November Services-Sector Survey Perpetuates Doubts

– December 4, 2019

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in November, but the mixed results and near-neutral level of the composite index perpetuates doubts about the strength of the economy.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Nonresidential construction

Nonresidential Construction Weighed Down by Private Sector

– December 2, 2019

Nonresidential construction activity continues at a high level though the broader trend is essentially flat.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
ISM PMI

Purchasing Managers’ Indexes Signal Continued Weakness in Manufacturing

– December 2, 2019

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI posted a fourth consecutive month below neutral in November. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Existing-home sales

Existing-Home Sales Trending Flat; Upside Limited

– November 22, 2019

Housing activity is enjoying a tailwind from the drop in mortgage rates but housing activity is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Shows Partisan Divide

– November 22, 2019

Consumer sentiment has trended slightly lower in recent months but remains at a high level; partisan differences remain significant.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Housing starts

Housing Starts and Permits Gain in October

– November 19, 2019

Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but the upside remains limited.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Retail sales

Retail Spending Suggests Caution

– November 15, 2019

Core retail sales were weak in October adding to concern about the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Consumer sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Shows Resilience in Early November

– November 8, 2019

Consumer sentiment maintained a generally high level by historical comparison in early November.

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