Business-Cycle Conditions
Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Fell in March with More Declines Likely

– March 27, 2020

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in March and is likely to show further declines in coming months as layoffs rise and the economy slows.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Layoffs

Job Losses Show Unprecedented Surge

– March 26, 2020

The unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is hitting economic statistics.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Layoffs

Layoffs Expected to Surge

– March 23, 2020

The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak will likely be unprecedented.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Initial claims

Initial Claims Jump and Manufacturing New Orders Fall

– March 19, 2020

Initial claims jumped and manufacturing new orders fell in the latest reports as the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic activity spread.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Housing starts

Falling Mortgage Rates May Support Housing Activity…Eventually

– March 18, 2020

Near-record low mortgage rates may provide some support for housing activity eventually. However, disruptions from COVID-19 are likely to dominate economic activity for March and the second quarter.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Retail sales

Weak Results for Retail Sales in February

– March 17, 2020

Retail sales were broadly weak in February and are likely to show significant weakness as the effects of quarantines and lockdowns materialize, increasing the risk of recession later this year.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
NY Fed Manufacturing

New York Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges in March

– March 16, 2020

New York Fed Survey shows a sharp drop in business conditions for local manufacturers, likely a result of COVID-19.

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Crisis
NFIB

Small-Business Optimism Remained High in February but COVID-19 Increases Uncertainty

– March 10, 2020

Small-business confidence remained robust in February; labor-market issues are the top concern.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Employment report

Labor Market Shows Broad Strength Prior to COVID-19 Outbreak

– March 6, 2020

The U.S labor market had strong momentum prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, however the severity of disruptions to economic activity is still unknown. Extreme caution is warranted.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
ISM Services NMI

ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms

– March 4, 2020

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.

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