Business-Cycle Conditions
Existing home sales

Existing-Home Sales Trending Flat; Upside Limited

– October 22, 2019

Existing-home sales fell 2.2 percent in September and are about even with levels from 2016. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Housing starts

Manufacturing Slides Further While Housing Stabilizes

– October 17, 2019

Single-family home construction picked up in September while an auto-production strike weighed on an already weak manufacturing sector. Erratic policy and elevated uncertainty continue to restrain activity and keep the economy vulnerable.

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Business-Cycle Conditions, Daily Economy

Consumers Restrain Spending in September

– October 16, 2019

Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
dont look down

Job Openings Decline in August, Continuing Downward Trend

– October 9, 2019

Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
work happening

Small-Business Optimism Faded A Bit in September, But Remains High

– October 8, 2019

Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

A Weak September Jobs Report Raises Concern

– October 4, 2019

U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

How to Prepare Yourself Financially for Recession

– October 3, 2019

Carrying an umbrella even when it doesn’t rain is a small price to pay.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in September

– October 1, 2019

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Why the U.S. Yield Curve Reliably Predicts U.S. Recessions

– September 30, 2019

Over the past half century in the U.S., yield-curve inversions have been important because they’ve reliably predicted all seven U.S. recessions.

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Business-Cycle Conditions

Recession Doesn’t Equal Crisis

– September 28, 2019

The specific conditions that predicated the 2008 financial crisis are not in place this time around.

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