Business-Cycle Conditions
Retail Sales

Broad-based Gains for Retail Sales in December

– January 16, 2020

Retail-sales and initial-claims data indicate consumer spending is rising, supported by a robust labor market.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Employment report

December Jobs Gains Disappoint, Suggest Slow Growth

– January 10, 2020

A disappointing December jobs report suggests slow growth for consumer spending and the overall economy.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
auto sales

Auto Sales Slowed in December But Remain in Trend

– January 8, 2020

Auto sales fell slightly in December, but consumer fundamentals and the labor market remain healthy; the outlook remains moderately favorable.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Employment report

Private Payrolls Expected to Increase in December

– January 8, 2020

ADP estimates 202,000 new jobs were created in December. Overall, the labor market remains solid and the most likely path is for continued expansion.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
ISM nonmanufacturing

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in December But Details Are Mixed

– January 7, 2020

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing NMI rose in December, but details are mixed suggesting slow growth and a cautious outlook.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
ISM PMI

ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in December

– January 3, 2020

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in December, extending the weak results over the last several months. Tepid trade and soft global growth are keeping risks elevated.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
JOLTS

Labor Market Regains Momentum

– December 17, 2019

A high level of job openings and quits suggest the labor market remains tight and is one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Industrial production

Industrial Production Jumped in October but the Trend Remains Weak

– December 17, 2019

Manufacturing output jumped in November but it’s too early to tell if growth will be sustained.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
housing-december-2019

Housing Starts and Permits Rose Again in November, But Upside Remains Limited

– December 17, 2019

Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but further upside is likely limited.

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Business-Cycle Conditions
Retail sales

Holiday Spending Off to a Modest Start

– December 13, 2019

Preliminary estimates suggest retail sales were modest in November implying slow growth remains the most likely path.

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