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“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted another drop in October, coming in at a neutral 50. The result suggests continued economic expansion, but ongoing labor difficulties, materials shortages, and logistical and transportation bottlenecks are sustaining upward pressure on prices.” – Robert Hughes
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The 1970s brought low levels of economic growth. It is appropriate to look back upon those days today. In this issue of the Harwood Economic Review we are again looking back to the ‘70s, as the worrisome prospects of increasing costs of living amid slowing economic growth are emerging. And with those, the ugliest word in economics has resurfaced: stagflation.
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its tenth consecutive increase in September led by groceries. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic including shortages, logistical and supply chain issues, and labor problems. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted a sixth consecutive drop in September but remains slightly above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting continued economic expansion. However, the string of declines since the March high also suggest that sources of growth may narrow, and the pace of growth could slow as well.” – Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a slower gain in August but is still up 6.8 percent from a year ago. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic and government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a sharp decline in August, falling to 58. Five consecutive pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth is likely to narrow in the future. Furthermore, resurging Covid is impacting consumers and threatening the outlook. Caution is warranted.” – Robert Hughes
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Gold will return to monetary preeminence not because it can or should, but because it must. Nixon’s temporary suspension will be exactly that; not because he said so, but rather because at some point there will be no other road forward.
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a fourth consecutive small decline in July, falling to 75. While the pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth could narrow in the future, the July result remains at a level consistent with continued economic expansion in coming months, but the threats to future growth may be growing.” – Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again, led by food and energy. Prices for many goods and services are still distorted by the lingering effects of government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index remained solidly above neutral in June, suggesting continued economic growth. However, labor issues, materials shortages, and logistical problems are restraining the recovery in output and putting upward pressure on prices. While the outlook remains positive, the emergence of the Delta variant increases uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a seventh straight monthly increase, reflecting a wide range of lingering fallout from government lockdowns. As these issues are worked out, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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“The United States and China are beginning to compete more closely all around the world, and collisions of interest are occurring more frequently. This issue is dedicated to US-China topics.” ~AIER
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