AIER Leading Indicators Index Returns to Neutral in May
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Facing the Music
One year ago, in the Summer 2021 issue of the Harwood Economic Review, we asked: “Is Inflation Back?” The answer is now clear. Inflation is back – and at 40 year highs. After years of easy money, it is time to face the music.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises a Record 12.8 Percent Over the Last 12 Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.1 in May led by energy prices, pushing the 12-month gain to a record high. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Dips Back Below Neutral
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell eight points to a below-neutral 46 in April. Rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and new lockdowns in China are risks to the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Food Prices Send AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in April
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Surges 3.0 Percent in March
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Improves Slightly, Remains Near Neutral
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Gas and Groceries Drive AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sharply Higher in February
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in February, driven by increases in the prices for motor fuel and groceries. Price pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term given the global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Posts Sudden Drop, Risks Rise
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index dropped to 46 in February. Disruptions to labor supply, shortages of materials, and logistics bottlenecks continue to pressure prices. Falling new Covid cases had the potential to support businesses’ efforts to expand production, but turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has launched a new wave of disruptions. The outlook has become highly uncertain and extreme caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Shows Improvement, Suggests Continued Expansion
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose to 63 in January with all three business cycle indicators above neutral for the first time since December 2019. The results suggest continued economic expansion with the potential for a broadening of growth in the economy. However, risks remain elevated as upward price pressures continue and Fed policymakers likely start a tightening cycle in March, raising the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Groping in the Dark
“This year, Ludwig von Mises’ Socialism turns 100 years old. Pandemic policies went beyond ordinary collectivism in utterly suppressing rather than seizing industries. We now face costly delays, shortages, and rising prices; this is what Mises’ ‘groping in the dark’ looks like.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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