Pertinent Category: Research

90 Years of New Deals

The intellectual progeny of the New Deal continue to surface in American economic and political discourse: the Fair Deal, the New Frontier, the Great Society, the Freedom Agenda, Build Back Better, and others. But just as upon our 1933 inception we fiercely opposed their progenitor, ninety years later AIER remains every bit in the fight.

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In Retrogress

Bad and disproven economic ideas have an uncanny longevity. While knowledge tends to be cumulative in most intellectual fields, the accumulation of knowledge in economics and finance seems to follow a more cyclical pattern. In this edition of the Harwood Economic Review we examine some recent examples of those, and discuss why ideas akin to spontaneous generation or phlogiston theory are periodically reinvigorated and applied in policy measures.

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months

– January 12, 2023

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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The AIER Business Conditions Monthly (BCM) Model

– January 1, 2023

It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds true for economies. Research at AIER is based on sound economic theory and backed by empirical analysis. The same combination of theory and empirical study is the foundation of our Business-Cycle Conditions model. In simple terms, our model is a set of economic indicators combined in a way that anticipates turning points in a business cycle. We stress that our use of the statistical indicators is only one of the tools available to help forecast the near-future, cyclical trend of business activity.

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What is the Everyday Price Index?

– January 1, 2023

The purpose of the AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) is to measure changes in the prices of goods and services that are important to people’s everyday lives. The index reflects the price uncertainty (i.e. unexpected and unavoidable price changes) that …

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Posts Sixth Consecutive Month Below Neutral

– December 14, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index came in at 29 in November, the sixth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. The low readings are consistent with economic weakness and significantly elevated risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fourth Time in Five Months

– December 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.2 in November, the fourth decline in the last five months. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Well Below Neutral

– November 14, 2022

The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in the latest month, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises After Three Consecutive Declines

– November 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Third Consecutive Month in September

– October 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 in September, driven by falling gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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On the Cusp

As inflation rises, the range of future outcomes broadens. Consumers rebalance budgets as price changes occur. Producers must now estimate not only the price their goods and services will fetch in the future, but future costs of production. Unsound money heightens uncertainty. We are at the cusp of change: but to, or toward, what?

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral

– October 12, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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