In Retrogress
Bad and disproven economic ideas have an uncanny longevity. While knowledge tends to be cumulative in most intellectual fields, the accumulation of knowledge in economics and finance seems to follow a more cyclical pattern. In this edition of the Harwood Economic Review we examine some recent examples of those, and discuss why ideas akin to spontaneous generation or phlogiston theory are periodically reinvigorated and applied in policy measures.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Posts Sixth Consecutive Month Below Neutral
“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index came in at 29 in November, the sixth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. The low readings are consistent with economic weakness and significantly elevated risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fourth Time in Five Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.2 in November, the fourth decline in the last five months. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Well Below Neutral
The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in the latest month, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises After Three Consecutive Declines
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Third Consecutive Month in September
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 in September, driven by falling gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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On the Cusp
As inflation rises, the range of future outcomes broadens. Consumers rebalance budgets as price changes occur. Producers must now estimate not only the price their goods and services will fetch in the future, but future costs of production. Unsound money heightens uncertainty. We are at the cusp of change: but to, or toward, what?
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral
“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER Leading Indicators Index Signals Continued Elevated Risks
“The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in August, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 1.3 Percent in August
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in August, driven by plunging gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 0.6 Percent in July
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.6 in July, the first drop since November 2020. An intensifying Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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