AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Surges in September as Recovery Broadens

– October 14, 2020

“AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose sharply in September, jumping to 67, suggesting the recovery has broadened substantially and may signal the end of the recession.” – Robert Hughes

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Transportation Drives Prices in September

– October 13, 2020

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.2 percent in September on a snapback in intracity transportation. Distortions to prices and economic activity continue under lockdown policies.” – Robert Hughes

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Everyday Prices Pushed Higher by Phone Service and Restaurants

– September 11, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as distortions to the economy from lockdowns and other restrictions impacted prices.

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves in August but Remains Well Below Neutral

– September 8, 2020

The AIER Business Cycle Conditions indexes remained well below neutral in August, suggesting a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery may be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.

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Everyday Prices Rise for a Third Month Led by Gas and Phone Service

– August 12, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July, pushed higher by gas and wireless phone services.

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Takes A Small Step Up in July

– August 7, 2020

AIER’s Leading Indicators index increased to 8 in July. The result suggests a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery is likely to be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.

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Modeling and Its Failures Issue

Harwood Economic Review Summer 2020 Table of Contents That’s One Way to End a LockdownAIER Staff SimCity-Style Modeling Flunks the Real-World TestPhillip W. Magness How Wrong Were the Models and Why?Phillip W. Magness Delayed Medical Procedures: Storie …

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Everyday Prices Surge on Food and Energy Gains in June

– July 14, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index jumped 1.2 percent in June, pushed higher by food and energy, the largest components in the index.

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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Remain at 0 in June.

– July 9, 2020

While signs of rebound in some measures of economic activity have started to emerge, reinstatement of lockdown restrictions could smother the nascent recovery.

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Everyday prices

Lockdowns Drive Up Everyday Prices in May

– June 10, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.3 percent in May, pushed higher by groceries, alcohol, and take-out.

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Business Conditions Monthly

Hitting Bottom: AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Drop to 0

– June 8, 2020

Despite the widespread devastation to the economy, there are a few statistics showing signs of modest rebounds, supported by the easing of restrictions placed on people and businesses.

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