AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Well Below Neutral

– November 14, 2022

The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in the latest month, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises After Three Consecutive Declines

– November 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.7 in October, driven by gasoline and food prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Third Consecutive Month in September

– October 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.4 in September, driven by falling gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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On the Cusp

As inflation rises, the range of future outcomes broadens. Consumers rebalance budgets as price changes occur. Producers must now estimate not only the price their goods and services will fetch in the future, but future costs of production. Unsound money heightens uncertainty. We are at the cusp of change: but to, or toward, what?

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Farther Below Neutral

– October 12, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index fell farther below neutral in September, approaching the levels at the start of some prior recessions and signaling sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Signals Continued Elevated Risks

– September 14, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators Index remained well below neutral in August, signaling broadening economic weakness and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 1.3 Percent in August

– September 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in August, driven by plunging gasoline prices. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls 0.6 Percent in July

– August 10, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.6 in July, the first drop since November 2020. An intensifying Fed tightening cycle, consumer pessimism, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to 29, Signals Broadening Weakness

– August 8, 2022

The AIER Leading Indicators Index is well below neutral, signaling broadening weakness in the economy and sharply elevated levels of risk for the outlook. Caution is warranted.

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 2.4 Percent in June

– July 13, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 2.4 in June, pushing the 12-month gain to another record high. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls to the Lowest Level Since August 2020

– July 13, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell to 42 in June. Any additional declines that take the leading index farther below the current reading would suggest a significantly higher risk of recession. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Returns to Neutral in May

– June 15, 2022

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May. Persistent upward pressure on prices, labor shortages and turnover, fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the economy. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

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