Groping in the Dark

“This year, Ludwig von Mises’ Socialism turns 100 years old. Pandemic policies went beyond ordinary collectivism in utterly suppressing rather than seizing industries. We now face costly delays, shortages, and rising prices; this is what Mises’ ‘groping in the dark’ looks like.” ~ Peter C. Earle

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Drop in Gas Holds AIER’s Everyday Price Index Down in December

– January 12, 2022

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index was unchanged in December as falling motor fuels prices offset other gains. Despite waves of new Covid cases, progress boosting output is being made and that should eventually ease some price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Remains Neutral for a Third Consecutive Month

– January 11, 2022

“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady again in December, coming in at a neutral 50 for a third month. The result suggests continued economic expansion but with elevated risks. Shortages of labor and materials continue to sustain upward pressure on prices but there may be some early signs of easing for some of those issues.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Posts Its 12th Consecutive Increase

– December 13, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its 12th consecutive increase in November, pushing the 12-month gain to the highest since 2008. Shortages of supplies and materials, logistical and supply chain issues, and labor problems are sustaining upward price pressures. Recurring waves of new Covid cases will likely compound the difficulties.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Holds at the Neutral 50 Mark

– December 10, 2021

“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady in November, coming in at a neutral 50 for a second month. The result suggests continued economic expansion, but with elevated risks due to sustained upward pressure on prices and recurring waves of new Covid cases.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 1.2 Percent in October

– November 10, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its eleventh consecutive increase in October on widespread gains. Price pressures remain elevated due to the lingering effects of the pandemic. As these effects fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” ~ Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Index Falls Again, Hitting the Neutral 50 Mark

– November 9, 2021

“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted another drop in October, coming in at a neutral 50. The result suggests continued economic expansion, but ongoing labor difficulties, materials shortages, and logistical and transportation bottlenecks are sustaining upward pressure on prices.” – Robert Hughes

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Stagflation in the Disco Era

The 1970s brought low levels of economic growth. It is appropriate to look back upon those days today. In this issue of the Harwood Economic Review we are again looking back to the ‘70s, as the worrisome prospects of increasing costs of living amid slowing economic growth are emerging. And with those, the ugliest word in economics has resurfaced: stagflation.

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Groceries Feed Gains in the Everyday Price Index in September

– October 13, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its tenth consecutive increase in September led by groceries. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic including shortages, logistical and supply chain issues, and labor problems. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes

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All Three AIER Business Cycle Indicators Weaken in October

– October 12, 2021

“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted a sixth consecutive drop in September but remains slightly above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting continued economic expansion. However, the string of declines since the March high also suggest that sources of growth may narrow, and the pace of growth could slow as well.” – Robert Hughes

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Everyday Price Index Rises at a Slower Pace in August

– September 14, 2021

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a slower gain in August but is still up 6.8 percent from a year ago. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic and government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes

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AIER Leading Indicators Drop Sharply but Remain Above Neutral

– September 13, 2021

“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a sharp decline in August, falling to 58. Five consecutive pullbacks suggest that breadth of growth is likely to narrow in the future. Furthermore, resurging Covid is impacting consumers and threatening the outlook. Caution is warranted.” – Robert Hughes

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