Favorable readings continue for the AIER Leading Indicators Index but Policy Threats Remain High

– January 12, 2021

“The uneven economic recovery continues, and future expansion is likely, but restrictive government policies remain a significant threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes

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Gas and Groceries Pull Down the Everyday Price Index in November

– December 10, 2020

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.2 percent in November, led by gas and groceries. Effects of the pandemic and government restrictions may impact relative prices in the short term.” – Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indexes Were Favorable in November

– December 8, 2020

“The U.S. economy expanded in November but concerns about the future linger. The potential for renewed lockdown policies to restrain future growth remains significant.” – Robert Hughes

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Food and Gasoline Offset in the Everyday Price Index

– November 12, 2020

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 0.1 percent in October as food and energy price changes largely offset each other.” – Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves Again in October

– November 10, 2020

“The U.S. economy continued to recover in October, but the pace of recovery in some areas has slowed. The potential for renewed lockdown policies remains a threat to future growth.” – Robert Hughes

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Surges in September as Recovery Broadens

– October 14, 2020

“AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose sharply in September, jumping to 67, suggesting the recovery has broadened substantially and may signal the end of the recession.” – Robert Hughes

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Transportation Drives Prices in September

– October 13, 2020

“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.2 percent in September on a snapback in intracity transportation. Distortions to prices and economic activity continue under lockdown policies.” – Robert Hughes

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Everyday Prices Pushed Higher by Phone Service and Restaurants

– September 11, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as distortions to the economy from lockdowns and other restrictions impacted prices.

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves in August but Remains Well Below Neutral

– September 8, 2020

The AIER Business Cycle Conditions indexes remained well below neutral in August, suggesting a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery may be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.

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Everyday Prices Rise for a Third Month Led by Gas and Phone Service

– August 12, 2020

AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July, pushed higher by gas and wireless phone services.

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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Takes A Small Step Up in July

– August 7, 2020

AIER’s Leading Indicators index increased to 8 in July. The result suggests a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery is likely to be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.

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