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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February. Rapidly rising prices, a new Fed tightening cycle, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are boosting uncertainty. Expect continued volatility for the AIER business cycle indicators over coming months. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in February, driven by increases in the prices for motor fuel and groceries. Price pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term given the global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index dropped to 46 in February. Disruptions to labor supply, shortages of materials, and logistics bottlenecks continue to pressure prices. Falling new Covid cases had the potential to support businesses’ efforts to expand production, but turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has launched a new wave of disruptions. The outlook has become highly uncertain and extreme caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Leading Indicators Index rose to 63 in January with all three business cycle indicators above neutral for the first time since December 2019. The results suggest continued economic expansion with the potential for a broadening of growth in the economy. However, risks remain elevated as upward price pressures continue and Fed policymakers likely start a tightening cycle in March, raising the risk of a policy mistake.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“This year, Ludwig von Mises’ Socialism turns 100 years old. Pandemic policies went beyond ordinary collectivism in utterly suppressing rather than seizing industries. We now face costly delays, shortages, and rising prices; this is what Mises’ ‘groping in the dark’ looks like.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index was unchanged in December as falling motor fuels prices offset other gains. Despite waves of new Covid cases, progress boosting output is being made and that should eventually ease some price pressures.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady again in December, coming in at a neutral 50 for a third month. The result suggests continued economic expansion but with elevated risks. Shortages of labor and materials continue to sustain upward pressure on prices but there may be some early signs of easing for some of those issues.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its 12th consecutive increase in November, pushing the 12-month gain to the highest since 2008. Shortages of supplies and materials, logistical and supply chain issues, and labor problems are sustaining upward price pressures. Recurring waves of new Covid cases will likely compound the difficulties.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“The AIER Leading Indicators index held steady in November, coming in at a neutral 50 for a second month. The result suggests continued economic expansion, but with elevated risks due to sustained upward pressure on prices and recurring waves of new Covid cases.” ~ Robert Hughes
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“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted its eleventh consecutive increase in October on widespread gains. Price pressures remain elevated due to the lingering effects of the pandemic. As these effects fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” ~ Robert Hughes
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