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Amid all of the talk about a first-quarter economic slump, we have some new data out this morning that shows the economy is likely to show more strength in the second quarter. “We’re seeing early signs that the soft patch might be ending,” said Bob Hughes, senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research. “We expect it to be consumer-led.”
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It is no surprise that no action was taken at the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting since the central bank has firmly formed public expectation of no interest rate increase in April. The question of interest to the market is whether the Federal Reserve has revealed some clear signal in its statement about the timing of the future rate increase. Disappointingly (but not surprisingly), the Fed didn’t change its forward guidance on rate increases from the March statement.
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The slower-than-expected growth in gross domestic product during the first quarter of the year is likely to cause the Fed to wait to raise interest rates until later in the year, said Bob Hughes, senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research.
READ MOREOur April Business Conditions Monthly report began the discussion of federal income taxes and equity. It reported IRS data showing that the top 20 percent of income tax filers paid 88 percent of income taxes in 2011.
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In February we analyzed the impact of the stronger dollar on the various sectors of the U.S. economy, as part of our new report, Business Conditions Monthly. In it we noted, “The surging dollar may be a boon for consumers who reap the benefits of potentially cheaper imports, but it can be a burden for U.S. corporations.” This has proven to be true as the ensuing months unfolded.
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An important barometer of economic health, orders of durable goods, showed remarkable strength in headline March data released this morning by the Commerce Department. But a closer look into the 4 percent increase over February showed that strength was driven by two unique areas: transportation and technology. Cut them out and focus mainly on manufacturing equipment and business investment, and the numbers don’t look nearly as rosy, said Theodore Cangero, data scientist at the American Institute for Economic Research.
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We enjoyed Justin Wolfers’ story today about first-quarter economic slumps, featured in The Upshot today in The New York Times. The story resonates with some of our own research, as we have been cautioning against reading too much into sluggish gross domestic product performance.
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In the early 20th century, professional baseball players batted over .400 four times in a 20-year span. Since Ted Williams’ magical 1941 season, no professional baseball player has batted .400. Although the aggregate professional batting average has remained stable at around .250, the variability of batting averages has declined as all players have become more skilled. We can apply the same lesson to investing.
READ MORELocal bankers recently stepped up to provide survivors of domestic and sexual violence with the tools to handle their own finances. It added up to a meaningful experience, not just for the women, but for volunteers as well.
READ MOREIf you’ve been to the grocery store recently, you’ve probably noticed that butter and dairy prices had been trending higher until recently. The big drop in butter prices in March is an interesting part of the story of the changing cost of living.
READ MOREOlder workers aren’t just finding new jobs – they’re finding new career paths, and with it, happiness and less stress, according to AIER’s new report, “New Careers for Older Workers.”
READ MOREMost older workers who sought career changes were successful, especially when they were able to use skills from their old careers, according to a new study released today by the American Institute for Economic Research. That study was profiled prominently in Money Magazine today.
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