Economic Expansion Grows More Vulnerable

By Aaron Nathans

Economic growth in this country has become somewhat more vulnerable, according to the new March edition of Business Conditions Monthly, out today from the American Institute for Economic Research.

The March edition is based upon data available through the end of February.

In the latest reading, 50 percent of our leading indicators were on an upward trend, down from 54 percent in January. We consider 50 percent a neutral level.

This marks the 78th consecutive month in which AIER’s leading indicators indicate continued economic expansion. This is defined by 50 percent or more or our leading indicators being in growth mode.

“While that does not suggest a recession is imminent, it does reflect a weakened economy and the importance of closely monitoring economic conditions,” according to the new report.

“The weakness is a result of the ongoing crosscurrents of moderate growth in the core domestic economy partially offset by headwinds from slow global growth, a strong dollar, and weak commodity prices. Those headwinds are having signifi­cant negative impacts on U.S. exports and commodity-related industries,” according to the report.

You can read the full report here.

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