Today, the American Institute for Economic Research releases its first Business Conditions Monthly report. Every month, we update our data-driven model as part of a wider look at economic trends. In our inaugural issue, we highlight wage growth and borrowing, energy prices and global economic growth as key themes for 2015. Regular readers of this feature will be able to count on us to deliver our economists’ read on where we believe the economy is headed, and our inflation scorecard will provide insight into where we see purchasing power going.
As the new year awaits, our outlook – which you can read free right here — is generally optimistic. With a backdrop of continued economic expansion, declining unemployment and potentially accelerating wages, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates sometime next year, and while it may create some short-term volatility in the markets, “we don’t think it’s a threat” to economic growth, said Bob Hughes, senior research fellow at AIER and the lead author of the report.
We use our Business Cycle Conditions model to give an easy read on whether to expect continued economic expansion. Long story short: Yes. But that’s only part of the story. We encourage you to click on the report and get into the weeds a little, so you can enter the new year armed with information. Or better yet, consider a membership to AIER, so you can take advantage of our full range of members-only economic reports. Starting this spring, only AIER members will have full access to Business Conditions Monthly.
Of course, there’s always the element of unforeseen world events, and we will adjust accordingly.
“The one thing that remains constant in the world of economics, economic policy and capital markets is the emergence of new tensions, chaos and a constant flow of change,” according to December’s report. “From political instability to new technologies, the global economy is in constant motion. In that respect, 2015 is likely to be no different than 2014: full of surprises.”