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One important area our economists will be watching in 2015 will be energy, after oil prices fell precipitously in the United States this year. Although shale discoveries have increased supplies here, the price drop happened in the context of shrinking demand amid a sluggish economy in many parts of the world. We will be paying close attention to the extent to which global demand recovers. The lower price of oil could decrease the willingness of oil producers in this country to make further investments, according to the forecast in AIER’s inaugural edition of the Business Conditions Monthly: “New technologies to produce oil and gas from shale rock or tar sands have led to some major shifts in global output. However, these new techniques and devices tend to be expensive, and may quickly shift from being economically feasible to unprofitable should prices continue to fall.” For an interesting look at this phenomenon, check out this article in The Economist from earlier this month, which suggests the burden of falling oil prices could fall on American shale producers. On Friday morning, amid increasing supplies in the United States, a barrel of light sweet crude oil was selling for $55.84, down from roughly $100 a year ago; Brent crude oil was selling for $60.24; it had been above $100 a year ago. Imports by Japan, whose economy was showing further weakness on Christmas, were down 17.3 percent in November from the same month a year earlier.
READ MOREConsumption smoothing is the idea is that when you’re younger and make less money, you spend beyond your means.
READ MOREIt should be a good year for the economy, our economists believe, and even the prospects of rising interest rates should not do much to dampen an overall trend of growth.
READ MOREAmericans are paying more for food when they’re in a restaurant, but less for it when they eat at home.
READ MOREAIER Summer Fellowship Practicum program has been selected as one of the Top 10 Summer Fellowships of 2015 by ProFellow, the largest online community of active fellowship seekers and university advisers, and the go-to-source for information on professional and academic fellowships.
READ MOREAmericans’ everyday expenses took a marked dip downward in November, according to an analysis by the American Institute for Economic Research
READ MOREDespite an improving economy, inflation is still being held down by a stronger dollar and cheaper oil, we learned from this morning’s release of the November Consumer Price Index by the Labor Department.
READ MOREAs we review a steady stream of numbers that show an improving economy, this op-ed in The New York Times offers us an interesting glimpse at the meaning of prosperity. Arthur C. Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, argues that abundance can be useful when practiced in balance with a healthy lack of attachment.
READ MOREAccording to the numbers released by the Commerce Department this morning, November saw a decline in housing starts of 1.6 percent. Current data suggest an annualized rate of about 1.03 million new housing units in this country, which Greenstein said is consistent with the slow and steady economic recovery.
READ MOREEighth-grade girls from across Berkshire County attended recent workshops aimed at giving them a foundation of financial understanding. The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) facilitated the Money Matters workshops, which were held at Miss Hall’s School, on November 17 and 19, 2014.
READ MOREThe report, from the Federal Reserve, showed November factory production was up 1.3 percent from October. It was the largest monthly gain since May 2010. Most components within manufacturing, including consumer goods, were up, with mining seeing a small decline.
READ MOREOn my recent drive to catch a plane in Albany, I noticed a new sign on the side of an Interstate toll booth. It said “Canadian currency discounted 20%,” and it was taped directly over the previous sign, which used to say “Canadian currency discounted 10%.”
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