Topic: Business Conditions

All Three AIER Business Cycle Indicators Weaken in October

– October 12, 2021

“The AIER Leading Indicators index posted a sixth consecutive drop in September but remains slightly above the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting continued economic expansion. However, the string of declines since the March high also suggest that sources of growth may narrow, and the pace of growth could slow as well.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Slower But Broad-Based Gains for Private Sector Payrolls in September

– October 8, 2021

“Payrolls posted another disappointing gain in September though breadth of gains in the private sector was favorable. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth remain significant.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Ease Back After Three Consecutive increases

– October 7, 2021

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits eased back after three consecutive increases. Federal continuing claims fell again following a plunge in the prior week as two pandemic programs saw additional declines.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Continued Expansion for the Services-Sector in September

– October 7, 2021

“The services sector expanded for the 16th consecutive month in September, but shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Unit Auto Sales Fell for a Fifth Consecutive Month as Shortages Continue

– October 5, 2021

“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fifth consecutive month in September. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Demand Remains Strong as Production Problems Persist for the Manufacturing Sector

– October 1, 2021

“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in September. However, labor difficulties, materials shortages, and logistical issues continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumer Sentiment Improved in September but Remains Low

– October 1, 2021

“Consumer sentiment remained weak in September as consumers react to Covid and high prices. The survey results suggest continued risks to the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose for the Third Consecutive Week

– September 30, 2021

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose for a third consecutive week, likely a result of the recent surge in new Covid cases. Federal continuing claims plunged as two pandemic programs saw steep declines.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Consumers’ Views of the Economy Fell in September

– September 28, 2021

“Consumers are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The declining optimism is likely to have some impact on spending and remains a risk to the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Durable-Goods Orders Rose in August as Core Capital-Goods Hit Another Record High

– September 27, 2021

“New orders for core capital goods hit another new high in August, the ninth record in the last ten months. Continued gains are a positive sign for the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

New Single-Family Home Sales Rose but So Did Inventory and Months’ Supply

– September 24, 2021

“New-home sales rose in August but so did inventory and months’ supply. Rising prices will likely continue to force some buyers out of the market, leading to additional inventory build and slower price increases.” – Robert Hughes

Business Conditions

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Again as Continuing Claims Fall

– September 23, 2021

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose for a second consecutive week, likely a result of the recent surge in new Covid cases. However, a tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should support a downward trend, but the path may be extended and more volatile.” – Robert Hughes