Favorable readings continue for the AIER Leading Indicators Index but Policy Threats Remain High
“The uneven economic recovery continues, and future expansion is likely, but restrictive government policies remain a significant threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indexes Were Favorable in November
“The U.S. economy expanded in November but concerns about the future linger. The potential for renewed lockdown policies to restrain future growth remains significant.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves Again in October
“The U.S. economy continued to recover in October, but the pace of recovery in some areas has slowed. The potential for renewed lockdown policies remains a threat to future growth.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Surges in September as Recovery Broadens
“AIER’s Leading Indicators index rose sharply in September, jumping to 67, suggesting the recovery has broadened substantially and may signal the end of the recession.” – Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Improves in August but Remains Well Below Neutral
The AIER Business Cycle Conditions indexes remained well below neutral in August, suggesting a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery may be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.
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AIER’s Leading Indicators Index Takes A Small Step Up in July
AIER’s Leading Indicators index increased to 8 in July. The result suggests a rapid recovery is unlikely and that full recovery is likely to be more drawn out, uneven, and uncertain.
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AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Remain at 0 in June.
While signs of rebound in some measures of economic activity have started to emerge, reinstatement of lockdown restrictions could smother the nascent recovery.
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Hitting Bottom: AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators Indexes Drop to 0
Despite the widespread devastation to the economy, there are a few statistics showing signs of modest rebounds, supported by the easing of restrictions placed on people and businesses.
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May 2020 Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Leading and Roughly Coincident Indicators indexes drop to 33, reflecting the economic devastation.
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April 2020 Business Conditions Monthly
Despite the continued modestly positive reading for the Leading Indicator index, the U.S. economy likely contracted in March, ending the longest U.S. economic expansion on record.
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March 2020 Business Conditions Monthly
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index remains close to neutral; COVID-19 threatens the outlook. Extreme caution is warranted.
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February 2020 Business Conditions Monthly
A decline for the AIER Leading Indicators index leaves the index at a neutral 50 for January
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