2016 Summer Fellowship Program

Summer Speaker Series

Tuesdays, 4 p.m.  -  5 p.m.

AIER Stone House Ballroom

These events are free and open to the public

June 28
Polina Vlasenko, PhD 
What is happening to our jobs?

 It used to be taken for granted that economic growth adds jobs (and good ones). But the jobless recovery from the Great Recession has called that into question. This lecture will explore whether the link between output growth and jobs has changed and why.

July 5
Luke Delorme    
What’s the best age to claim Social Security – 62, 66, or 70?

Learn about the trade-offs to consider in deciding when to claim Social Security. We will review recent changes in Social Security passed by Congress in 2015 and whether people in their 60s might still be able to take advantage of loopholes to boost their Social Security income.

July 12
Jia Liu, PhD  
Our inflation crystal ball

Inflation is crucial to decision making, whether you are a consumer, a saver, or an investor. However, some would say inflation forecasting is as hard as fortune telling, since most inflation forecasting models are known to perform poorly.  AIER’s inflation crystal ball, on the other hand, is shown to be a significant improvement on forecasting performance in the past couple of decades.

July 19
Patrick Coate, PhD      
Why people move, and why they’re moving less often

People in the U.S. move between cities far less today than they did 20 or 30 years ago. Since geographic mobility has long been a way for people to expand their economic opportunities, it is important to understand the reasons. You will learn about leading theories for the decline in internal migration and how most of it comes from cities where migration used to be highest. Less migration might not be a sign of decreasing opportunity or labor market vibrancy but an indication that people are searching for opportunities close to home.

July 26
Max Gulker, PhD  
Mom and Pop vs. Big Box: How small businesses compete with larger rivals

Small businesses often face larger competitors who can undercut them on price. But being small also offers competitive advantages that most successful small firms know how to capitalize on. Based on interviews with more than 20 small business owners, we offer a roadmap to competitive success for the small entrepreneur.

August 2
Robert Hughes     
Using the business cycle to manage your investments

Many investors, often with the help and guidance of their financial advisers, have built asset allocation strategies based on long-term assumptions for expected returns. Portfolios are then “managed” by rebalancing to desired allocations. Rebalancing may be done on a schedule or when allocations reach certain extreme levels. However, portfolios may also be managed according to current economic and market conditions. In this discussion, we examine one approach to managing a portfolio using the AIER Business-Cycle Conditions model.