“Team Transitory’s narrative just doesn’t cohere. Whether we’re trying to explain the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, or the inflation of the past two years, we need to rely on demand-side mechanisms.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“Microeconomic relative-price dynamics increasingly drive inflation measurements. That means the Fed should not be afraid to ease off the brakes.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“The delayed implementation of dollarization in Argentina presents challenges that could have been avoided had Milei honored his promise to abandon the peso straightaway.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
READ MORE“The Fed’s self-conception as an apolitical technocracy blinds it to the degree to which it has weighed in on fundamental political issues, which instead ought to be deliberated in Congress.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“While not a groundbreaking revelation for any central bank, the lack of concern about the economic and institutional implications of monetizing financial obligations is cause for concern.” ~Nicolas Cachanosky
READ MORE“Even if Fed economists have underestimated the natural rate of interest by half, monetary policy looks slightly tight. It looks very tight if the natural-rate figures are anywhere close to correct.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“Monetary policy remains very tight. Interest rates are much higher than they were just prior to the pandemic. And the Fed is no longer accommodating expansionary fiscal policy.” ~William J. Luther
READ MORE“After a rough couple of rounds, inflation has come out swinging. It doesn’t have the legs for a knockout punch, but it remains a troublesome opponent.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“The extent to which the Federal Reserve will take measures to hold back TCH-RTP’s growth was not yet clear (and maybe it still isn’t). Institutions may be hedging their bets or testing both systems.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
READ MORE” Some combination of fiscal and monetary policy remains the best explanation for the once-in-a-generation inflation rates that peaked in summer 2022, as well as their gradual decline.” ~Alexander W. Salter
READ MORE“Rather than dismissing it as magic, one should recognize that dollarization is a pragmatic approach to restoring stability in high-inflation countries that lack credible institutions.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
READ MORE“The FOMC changed course last week, foregoing a previously projected rate hike and projecting deeper rate cuts in 2024 than previously anticipated. But those rate cuts may come too late.” ~William J. Luther
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