Topic: Research Briefs

The AIER Business Conditions Monthly (BCM) Model

– January 1, 2023

It’s been said that the only constant in life is change. That idea certainly holds true for economies. Research at AIER is based on sound economic theory and backed by empirical analysis. The same combination of theory and empirical study is the foundation of our Business-Cycle Conditions model. In simple terms, our model is a set of economic indicators combined in a way that anticipates turning points in a business cycle. We stress that our use of the statistical indicators is only one of the tools available to help forecast the near-future, cyclical trend of business activity.

Economic Bulletin, Research Briefs

Inflation Was Low in 2017, But Concerns Remain

– April 24, 2018

The more government inflates the money supply, the more that prices will eventually go up.

Regulation, Research Briefs

The Real Problem With the DOJ’s Decision to Block the AT&T–Time Warner Merger

– February 15, 2018

If there is one entity this article can definitively criticize, it is the DOJ itself. In both the current AT&T/Time Warner matter and the NBCU/Comcast merger it allowed with numerous conditions in 2011, it relied on economic logic that can be called into question and mathematical models that were intended to formalize broad concepts in an academic setting, not predict the future with enough precision to provide grounds to approve or block multibillion-dollar mergers.

History, Research Briefs

Should Economics Attempt to Replicate the Natural Sciences?

– February 5, 2018

A phenomenon known as the Replication Crisis is challenging the seemingly unquestionable authority and accuracy that a published study in the natural sciences is expected to have, inviting the question as to whether economists should aspire to the standards of natural scientists or to something better.

Cryptocurrency, Research Briefs

Bitcoin’s Price Volatility is Trending in the Wrong Direction

– February 2, 2018

It only takes a quick glance at recent news to know Bitcoin is volatile; its fluctuations in price have made headlines for months now. But exactly how volatile is it relative to commonly used currencies, and how does that affect this cryptocurrency’s ability to actually be a usable medium of exchange?

Research Briefs

E.C. Harwood and Rigorous Methods of Inquiry in Economics

– January 29, 2018

Although economists around the globe may not yet share a common method of inquiry as biologists, physicists, and chemists do, E.C. Harwood had a vision of an inevitable future of economics based on the scientific method. He proclaimed, “Organized intelligence shall triumph over the infantile, the primitive, the prescientific economic knowings of mankind.”