Topic: Inflation

Economic Education, Inflation, Monetary Policy

Economics is Not Easy

– July 20, 2023

” Since everyone looks to prices for accurate information about relative scarcity, having prices that are being inflated artificially is misleading, and results in multiple different economic actors all trying to expand at once.” ~ Michael Munger

Central Banking, Currency, Inflation, Monetary Policy

Fed Up with Tightening?

– July 19, 2023

“Provided the recent monthly inflation figures give us an accurate forecast, the real federal funds rate is significantly above the natural rate. This indicates monetary policy is restrictive.” ~ Alexander W. Salter

Economic Trends, Everyday Price Index, Inflation

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Edges Up in June 2023

– July 13, 2023

“The combination of Fed rate hikes and easing demand is clearly having the intended disinflationary effect on the general price level as measured by the various CPIs.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Inflation, Leadership, Regulation

Appropriately Measuring Inflation and Deflation Teaches Humility!

– July 12, 2023

“Had we used the true price index, we would have found a larger contraction due to lockdowns. That means that we understated the cost of lockdowns.” ~ Vincent Geloso

Central Banking, Inflation, Monetary Policy

Disinflation is Welcome, but the Fed’s Job Isn’t Done

– July 12, 2023

“The Fed may not need to tighten any further, depending on how markets continue to react to its recent policy changes. But this is no time for complacency.’ ~ Alexander W. Salter

Economic Trends, Inflation, Monetary Policy

The Inverted Yield Curve and Next US Recession

– July 8, 2023

“When will the start of the next recession be recognized? On average since 1980 the NBER has waited eight months before assigning a starting date (and fifteen months to assign ending dates), so if the next recession were to begin in early 2024 it might be publicized by August.”

Business Conditions, Economic Trends, Inflation

May 2023 Business Conditions Monthly

– July 7, 2023

“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle

Central Banking, Inflation, Sound Money, Sound Money Project

Inflation is Slowing. Will the Fed?

– July 2, 2023

“Monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Inflation is slowing, but it will take some time to come down. Fed officials should not be too concerned about elevated core inflation.” ~ William J. Luther

Central Banking, Currency, Inflation

Don’t Raise the Target; Change the Framework

– June 29, 2023

“By adopting a nominal spending target, the Fed would embrace a regime that provides clear guidance on the required spending level during times of crisis. This shift would enhance the Fed’s ability to navigate economic downturns effectively.” ~ Nicolás Cachanosky

Inflation, Sound Money Project, Unemployment

In Search of a Monetary Standard: A Review of Robert Hetzel’s The Federal Reserve: A New History

– June 28, 2023

“The price system worked exceptionally well precisely because the Fed had successfully established a credible nominal anchor. As a result, the economy could sustain a historically low unemployment rate.” ~ Bryan P. Cutsinger

Crisis, Currency, Inflation

Money Blindness and Money Clarity

– June 21, 2023

“Macroeconomists and policymakers can speak of anchored expectations all they want, but what ultimately happens is that regular folk find themselves impoverished without really understanding what went wrong or how they could have done things differently.” ~ Joakim Book

Currency, Economic Trends, Inflation

President Biden’s Inflation Malarkey

– June 20, 2023

“Dollar depreciation is why prices are rising. The Fed’s monetary policy, aided and abetted by the President’s and Congress’s massive deficits, are the real cause.” ~ Alexander W. Salter